Emerging Europe Economics Update Upside inflation risks build across CEE The latest CPI data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have been stronger than expected, and leading indicators suggest that inflation across the region may be higher than we previously... 12th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Hawks flying in CEE, growing pressure on the CBR? Communications from central banks in Poland and Czechia this week were both on the hawkish side, but we expect a continued divergence in monetary policy over the coming year as interest rates remain... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The Czech National Bank (CNB) cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 3.75%, and we think that further easing lies in store this year. Our forecast for the policy rate to fall to 3.00% by end-2025 would... 6th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The manufacturing PMIs in Central Europe rose slightly last month, but the big picture is that they remained at weak levels. And the threat of US tariffs on the EU poses an additional headwind for the... 3rd February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Putin’s response to Trump, CEE GDP, Turkish inflation Comments from President Putin in an interview this week add to signs that efforts to reach a peace deal in Ukraine will be challenging. Elsewhere, the Q4 figures out of Central Europe point to a... 31st January 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies in Eastern Europe picked up a bit of momentum at the end of 2024, but we don’t... 31st January 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel-Hamas Ceasefire, CEE Forum The ceasefire deal agreed between Israel and Hamas this week will, if it sticks, lead to a sustained improvement in the outlook for growth, inflation and the public finances in Israel. We also outline... 17th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A guide to upcoming elections across CEE A flurry of elections are due across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the next year or so, which will provide a gauge of support for Ukraine and, in some cases, will shape countries’ future... 15th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies in Eastern Europe are struggling heading into 2025, and policymakers have... 20th December 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Czech central bank (CNB) left its policy rate on hold at 4.00% today, but we think that the easing cycle will resume before long. We still expect rates to fall towards 3.00% by the end of next... 19th December 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Oversupply will keep CEE logistics in a rut in 2025 The non-euro-zone central European logistics markets have been Europe’s worst performing in 2024 as prime rents have fallen across the region. 2025 will herald more of the same, as oversupply keeps... 19th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth under pressure amid persistent inflation Slowing growth across Emerging Europe in recent quarters has set a downbeat tone heading into 2025. With domestic and external headwinds remaining strong, we think that most economies in the region... 17th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The PMIs fell deeper into contractionary territory in Poland and Czechia last month, adding to the disappointing run of activity data out of Central Europe. In contrast, the PMIs rose in Turkey and... 2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) The weak run of activity data out of Emerging Europe continued over the past month and, while the region is more insulated from Trump’s tariff threats than some other EMs, the risks to our already... 28th November 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE struggling, Turkish lira an unlikely outperformer The Q3 GDP data released out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week has only added to worries about the health of the region’s economies, but with inflation still a concern – and in some cases... 15th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The Czech National Bank cut its policy rate by 25bp again today, to 4.00%, and we still think that the conditions will be in place for the policy rate to be lowered to its estimated neutral level of 3... 7th November 2024 · 2 mins read
