Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little in 2024 but is likely to come in well below consensus expectations. OPEC+’s cautious approach to oil policy will keep a lid on economic growth in the Gulf over the first half of next year, although a loose fiscal stance will remain supportive of activity in non-oil sectors. Elsewhere, balance of payments strains mean that Egypt will need to loosen its grip on the currency soon to get its IMF deal back on track. If it doesn’t, a more disorderly currency adjustment that raises concerns about sovereign debt sustainability could ensue.
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