Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region.
Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as oil output cuts are unwound. But lower oil prices will prompt a turn to fiscal consolidation in most of the Gulf, causing growth in non-oil sectors to slow. Elsewhere, balance sheets in economies outside the Gulf have improved and slowing inflation will allow central banks to loosen monetary policy. Fiscal tightening will still be needed to stop public debt ratios from rising, although this is unlikely to prevent a pick-up in growth next year. We still think that Tunisia is heading for a sovereign default.
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