The recent slide in oil prices has raised the prospect that OPEC+ delays planned increases to output at its meeting next week, but this risks stoking tensions among key members if it means that the group continues to cede market share. The hit to oil receipts has brought the spotlight back on Saudi Arabia’s external position and the IMF echoed our view that the current account will soon flip into deficit. This could ultimately prompt officials to reconsider their loose fiscal stance and turn to austerity. Finally, we think data due next week will show that inflation in Egypt was broadly unchanged in August, adding to the reasons for interest rates to stay on hold until Q1 next year.
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