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Drop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What’s driving oil prices in 2025?

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An oil market that has mostly looked through a year of Middle East conflict now faces fresh, Trump-shaped, uncertainty.

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Trump and MENA: tariffs, dollar pegs, oil, and geopolitics

The Middle East and North Africa, for the most part, will be little affected by any direct effects of US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs. But, for those with dollar pegs...

7th November 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

The US election and implications for MENA

Next week’s US presidential election will have major ramifications for the Middle East and North Africa. Attention will probably focus on how either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump tackle the Israel...

31st October 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt-IMF, Tunisia unorthodox policies, Blinken in Riyadh

The economic hit from Egypt’s reforms is prompting officials to reevaluate the timeline for future policy moves under the IMF deal. But given the rise in capital flows from elsewhere, Egypt is better...

24th October 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MbS skips on BRICS+ summit but holds fruitful Egypt talks

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) decision to skip next week’s BRICS+ summit adds to the signs that the Kingdom feels that its shift towards China’s sphere of influence may have gone too...

17th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Tunisia election, UAE budget, Saudi King’s health

Incumbent Kais Saied won Tunisia's election in an (unsurprising) landslide and his second term will probably see the economy remain on the path towards a messy balance of payments crisis and sovereign...

10th October 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

War escalates; all eyes on Israel

Global headlines this week have been dominated by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and attention is now focussed on Israel and the scale and nature of its response to Iran’s retaliatory...

3rd October 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi oil policy, Egypt’s debt return, Israel-Lebanon

Saudi Arabia is reportedly set to change tack and raise oil output to recapture lost market share, which would provide a mechanical lift to GDP and the Kingdom is in a strong position to weather any...

26th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt-PIF investment, monetary policy in MENA

The announcement that Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund will invest $5bn into Egypt’s economy is a further sign that the weaker pound has made Egyptian assets more attractive and will help to put...

19th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ fallout, Egypt’s LNG imports, Gulf and the Fed

Oil prices continued to fall this week, despite OPEC+’s decision to roll over production cuts. And given the way OPEC+ is now losing market share, we think the case for Saudi Arabia, the group’s de...

12th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ decision, Saudi Arabia’s Article IV, Egypt inflation

The recent slide in oil prices has raised the prospect that OPEC+ delays planned increases to output at its meeting next week, but this risks stoking tensions among key members if it means that the...

5th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Libya’s crisis, Egypt’s central bank meeting

The oil market was rocked by two political shocks in the past week: an exchange of missiles between Israel and Hezbollah and a crisis in Libya, which led to cuts to its oil output. At the margin, the...

29th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Ceasefire latest, CBE governor stays on, PIF annual report

The US government has pushed for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas this week, but an agreement seems some way off still. A deal would benefit Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, whose economies...

22nd August 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Reforms on the agenda in the Gulf, Morocco’s budget

Reports this week suggest that Kuwait’s government will pursue public finance reforms to diversify revenues away from oil, but the reported measures appear to be small in the grand scheme of things...

15th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

The global market turmoil and the impact on MENA

Financial markets in the Middle East weren’t spared from the global sell-off earlier in the week. There could be a macro impact on the Gulf economies through the fall in oil prices, either via lower...

8th August 2024 · 7 mins read