Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Trump continues to strain relations with MENA

President Trump’s doubling down on the future of Gaza continues to muddle efforts to bring the Middle East into the US’s sphere of influence. Meanwhile, the UAE and Bahrain are the two countries in...

13th February 2025 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Trump muddles the US’s relations with MENA

President Trump’s comments on Gaza risk straining relations with the Gulf and will work against his aim of expanding the Abraham Accords to include a normalisation of Saudi-Israel relations. Meanwhile...

6th February 2025 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: OPEC+ and Trump, Egypt’s debt issuance

President Trump’s call for OPEC+ to “bring down the cost of oil” is unlikely to change the outcome of group’s meeting on Monday; it is likely to stick to plans to gradually raise oil output from April...

30th January 2025 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Saudi-US relations already warming under Trump

Relations between Saudi Arabia and the US already appear to be on a stronger footing during Donald Trump’s first few days in office, adding to signs that it’s drift towards China is over. The Kingdom...

23rd January 2025 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Ceasefire in Gaza, Egypt’s fiscal future

The provisional ceasefire deal in Gaza, subject to final approval from both sides (which Israel's PM Netanyahu has called into question today), could mark a major de-escalatory step. For the...

16th January 2025 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi debt issuance, Egypt-IMF, Lebanon’s new president

Saudi Arabia kicked off the year with bumper international debt issuance and, with foreign investment remaining weak and budget deficits likely to persist, the government’s reliance on capital markets...

9th January 2025 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi inflation, Moroccan rates

Saudi inflation rose further in November but there were tentative signs that some of the recent drivers of higher price pressures are fading and we expect the headline rate to drop back towards 1% by...

19th December 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ and Gulf GDP, Syria after Assad, MENA World Cups

OPEC+’s decision to once again push back the unwinding of oil output cuts will keep a lid on economic growth in the Gulf and we expect GDP to expand by less than others anticipate next year. Elsewhere...

12th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Syria latest, Saudi-US security pact, Tunisia central bank

The advance by Syrian rebels, which has taken President Assad’s forces by surprise, is unlikely to have significant macro implications, but it has shone the light on how geopolitical alliances in the...

5th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, Saudi budget, OPEC+

The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreed this week may present a stepping stone towards broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. But the economic spillovers for Egypt and Jordan are likely to...

28th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s privatisation drive, Saudi’s geopolitical tug of war

With Egypt’s macroeconomic stability restored, officials are starting to turn their attention to longer term reforms and number one on the list appears to be reinvigorating the stalled privatisation...

21st November 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt inflation and CBE meeting, US Middle East policy

The increase in Egyptian inflation in October all but rules out an interest rate cut before the end of the year. But we continue to think a fall in inflation early next year will allow a loosening...

14th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What’s driving oil prices in 2025?

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An oil market that has mostly looked through a year of Middle East conflict now faces fresh, Trump-shaped, uncertainty.

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Trump and MENA: tariffs, dollar pegs, oil, and geopolitics

The Middle East and North Africa, for the most part, will be little affected by any direct effects of US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs. But, for those with dollar pegs...

7th November 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

The US election and implications for MENA

Next week’s US presidential election will have major ramifications for the Middle East and North Africa. Attention will probably focus on how either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump tackle the Israel...

31st October 2024 · 7 mins read