GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the back of higher oil production in the Gulf. The UAE will be the Gulf’s top performing economy and, elsewhere, we expect that growth in Egypt and Morocco will strengthen on the back of higher exports and reform efforts. The region as a whole should be relatively sheltered from a protectionist trade shift in President-elect Trump’s second term. The bigger risks to the outlook stem from regional geopolitics, although the recently-agreed Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire and overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria have potentially opened a path towards a broader de-escalation of tensions.
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