Commodity prices have been on a rollercoaster ride but, on net, many prices remain lower than before “Liberation Day”. In the coming months, our base case is that the 90-day pause on tariffs will be extended. That said, we can’t rule out that this reprieve is only temporary and that in a few months the market frenzy will resume. Accordingly, the downside risks to our forecasts remain.
In addition, oil markets tumbled further on the back of OPEC+’s announcement that it will pick up the pace of output increases. The decision appears to mark a clear shift in priorities towards regaining market share rather than pursuing higher prices.
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