Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s privatisation drive, Saudi’s geopolitical tug of war With Egypt’s macroeconomic stability restored, officials are starting to turn their attention to longer term reforms and number one on the list appears to be reinvigorating the stalled privatisation... 21st November 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt inflation and CBE meeting, US Middle East policy The increase in Egyptian inflation in October all but rules out an interest rate cut before the end of the year. But we continue to think a fall in inflation early next year will allow a loosening... 14th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Trump, Middle East geopolitics & the oil market It seems likely that the US will step up sanctions enforcement on Iran’s oil trade, though the oil market should be able to absorb this. The much greater risk for oil prices is a more dramatic shift... 12th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly War and peace Donald Trump’s victory in the US election could pave the way for dialogue with Russia and a ceasefire in Ukraine, but we think it's unlikely in this scenario that sanctions on Russia would be lifted... 8th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Trump and MENA: tariffs, dollar pegs, oil, and geopolitics The Middle East and North Africa, for the most part, will be little affected by any direct effects of US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs. But, for those with dollar pegs... 7th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The US election and implications for MENA Next week’s US presidential election will have major ramifications for the Middle East and North Africa. Attention will probably focus on how either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump tackle the Israel... 31st October 2024 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil risk premium shrinks; China leaves us guessing The risk premium in oil prices collapsed this week after reports suggested that Israel would not target Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities in any retaliatory strike. With the fundamentals of weak oil... 18th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) It’s too soon to say whether the Iranian missile strikes on Israel are the start of a conflict that will eventually result in oil supply being affected or if oil prices will drop back as the... 3rd October 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly War escalates; all eyes on Israel Global headlines this week have been dominated by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and attention is now focussed on Israel and the scale and nature of its response to Iran’s retaliatory... 3rd October 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil policy, Egypt’s debt return, Israel-Lebanon Saudi Arabia is reportedly set to change tack and raise oil output to recapture lost market share, which would provide a mechanical lift to GDP and the Kingdom is in a strong position to weather any... 26th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Ceasefire latest, CBE governor stays on, PIF annual report The US government has pushed for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas this week, but an agreement seems some way off still. A deal would benefit Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, whose economies... 22nd August 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire The global macroeconomic risks surrounding a possible ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas are asymmetric. An agreement – while having significant economic consequences for countries in the region... 19th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tensions ratcheting up, Egypt-IMF, Saudi Q2 data Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are on the brink of boiling over after Israel’s assassinations of high-ranking Hezbollah and Hamas officials this week. It remains to be seen what the response... 1st August 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle, PMIs, Oman income tax Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle gave the government a facelift, but it doesn’t look like there will be any U-turns on policymaking – and particularly the fiscal consolidation path. Meanwhile, the batch of... 4th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt blackouts, Morocco rate cut, Iran election Gas shortages in Egypt have led to blackouts and hotter summers are likely to raise demand for energy in the future. Absent further large gas finds, Egypt’s time as a natural gas net exporter is... 27th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon on the brink, Hajj underway, Morocco rates Tensions between Hezbollah and Israel have ratcheted up in recent weeks and now threatens to draw Lebanon directly into the war. The economy is already in the midst of one of the worst crises on... 20th June 2024 · 6 mins read
