Commodities Update

China NPC is no gamechanger for commodity markets

Although industrial metals prices have risen following the National People’s Congress (NPC) in China, we still think that prices will fall over 2025 and 2026 given that the policies outlined do not go...

5th March 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

US tariffs: what next for commodity markets?

Tariffs have already boosted commodity prices in the US, and the risks to global prices and trade flows will only grow if tariffs become more widespread. Our Oil and Metals Tariff Impact Trackers are...

4th March 2025 · 2 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Weak market fundamentals; geopolitics the wildcard

Most energy and industrial metals prices will fall in 2025 as structural headwinds to demand build and supply rises. Geopolitical developments remain a key uncertainty and it is easy to think of...

13th December 2024 · 23 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Dec. 24)

While Trump's plans to implement tariffs on Canada and Mexico and to raise energy production by 3mn barrels of oil equivalent per day have grabbed headlines, we're doubtful that either will have a...

10th December 2024 · 0 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Tariffs & re-routing commodity trade; natural gas soars

The election victory of Donald Trump and the prospect of renewed trade restrictions has naturally sharpened attention on the potential impact of tariffs on trade flows, including on commodity trade...

22nd November 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Initial thoughts on commodities and Trump tariffs

While it is uncertain exactly how Trump will approach tariffs during a second term, China will clearly be in the firing line and commodities could be caught in the crossfire. Iron and steel, and to a...

15th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Soft demand + extra supply ⇒ lower prices

We expect most commodity prices to fall next year and our forecasts are generally below consensus. The biggest upside risk to our energy price forecasts stems from the potential for an escalation in...

24th September 2024 · 24 mins read

Commodities Update

Grain prices set to fall (if La Niña doesn’t get in the way)

While media attention has been on the soaring prices of coffee and cocoa, the prices of many grains have slid lower since the start of the year. We think that prices will fall further by the end of...

18th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Commodity prices to fall back

We forecast most commodities prices to fall next year – despite falling interest rates and faster global GDP growth – as numerous supply constraints ease and a crunch in Chinese construction begins to...

27th June 2024 · 21 mins read

Commodities Update

A primer on the EU’s deforestation regulation

The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will rejig the way commodity imports enter the EU when it comes into force later this year and could lead to premiums for compliant commodities over non...

17th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Attention turns towards the return of La Niña

A return of La Niña could provide some respite for those commodity producers who have been hit hardest by El Niño. But it could also pose problems for others – not least in South America – and so...

6th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (June 2024)

Our Commodities Overview Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. OPEC+’s decision to roll over its production cuts into Q3 will keep supply...

6th June 2024 · 1 min read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (May 2024)

We think that oil prices have further to fall, as we expect OPEC+ to gradually increase output later this year. Prices have recently fallen as worries that the conflict in the Middle East could affect...

8th May 2024 · 1 min read

Commodities Update

A firm start to the year for China’s commodity imports

China’s energy and industrial metal imports were generally strong in the first quarter. We expect them to hold up well in the coming months as fiscal stimulus continues to support construction...

12th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

We expect oil prices to edge lower in the second half of 2024 as OPEC+ starts to unwind its production cuts. However, the Israel-Hamas war, and associated risks to supply, will act as a floor under...

12th March 2024 · 1 min read