Latin America Economic Outlook Trump casts a shadow, fiscal risks to intensify Tight policy, deteriorating terms of trade and, in Mexico’s case, US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America weak and below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks... 12th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Marco Rubio, Latin America & fracturing US President-elect Donald Trump’s choice of Mark Rubio as secretary of state suggests that – after years of neglect – Latin America will play a more prominent role in US foreign policy in the next... 15th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (August 2024) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most Latin American economies appear to have headed into Q3 with little momentum... 28th August 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine inflation, Brazil’s hawks, change in Venezuela? Suggestions from the governments of Brazil and Colombia have led to a bit of movement towards solving Venezuela’s post-election stand-off. A lot remains uncertain, but our sense is that the likelihood... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela: rig and repress The declaration that incumbent Nicolás Maduro won Venezuela’s presidential election has been met with protests and international pressure for a full account of the results. But our sense at this stage... 2nd August 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela votes, Mexico’s gigafactory & inflation worries Opinion polls suggest that Venezuela’s election on Sunday could bring Chavismo to an end, allowing the economy to open up and for sanctions to be lifted. But we doubt that the economic damage of the... 26th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (July 2024) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Regional growth appears to have slowed in Q2 and we think it will be sluggish in... 24th July 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela’s election: time for change? The latest polls suggest that the opposition is on track to win Venezuela’s election later this month but President Maduro is likely to do all he can to cling on to power. If he manages to do so... 18th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in the region picked up in Q1 and we expect this to continue in the coming quarters... 24th April 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currency worries, Venezuela oil sanctions The recent falls in many Latin American currencies, alongside stubbornly strong core price pressures, support our relatively hawkish view on the outlook for monetary policy in the region. Elsewhere... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Middle East tensions may support Venezuela’s oil sector Concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East and the impact on global oil supplies increase the likelihood that the US will renew its sanctions waiver on Venezuela when the current one... 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom’s concerns, Maduro tests the US, Chile’s lithium The minutes to the Brazilian central bank’s meeting last week confirmed our view that Copom will soon start to slow the pace of easing. Meanwhile, developments in Venezuela this week mean that it now... 28th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Set for a slow recovery Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will take hold in the coming quarters, growth will fall short of consensus expectations. The disinflation process... 26th March 2024 · 22 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will... 13th March 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuelan inflation, Mexico’s slowdown Inflation and activity figures out of Mexico this week bolster our view that consensus growth forecasts for 2024 look a bit too optimistic and that Banxico will start its monetary easing cycle next... 23rd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela-Guyana tensions, new macro forecasts Venezuela’s increasingly assertive claims over the oil-rich Essequibo region, internationally recognised as part of Guyana, has raised the risk of some kind of miscalculation that leads to military... 8th December 2023 · 7 mins read
