Commodities Update

China NPC is no gamechanger for commodity markets

Although industrial metals prices have risen following the National People’s Congress (NPC) in China, we still think that prices will fall over 2025 and 2026 given that the policies outlined do not go...

5th March 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

US tariffs: what next for commodity markets?

Tariffs have already boosted commodity prices in the US, and the risks to global prices and trade flows will only grow if tariffs become more widespread. Our Oil and Metals Tariff Impact Trackers are...

4th March 2025 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

Here’s what China can offer to buy from the US

President Trump has signalled that he is open to the possibility of a new trade deal with China, though probably not before tensions rachet up further. This would likely involve China committing to...

25th February 2025 · 6 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Frothy coffee?; EU gas woe; "Max pressure", little impact

While the steady upward grind in EU natural gas prices has been less spectacular than the recent hockey stick-shaped surge in the price of arabica coffee beans, the doubling in EU gas prices since...

7th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Weak market fundamentals; geopolitics the wildcard

Most energy and industrial metals prices will fall in 2025 as structural headwinds to demand build and supply rises. Geopolitical developments remain a key uncertainty and it is easy to think of...

13th December 2024 · 23 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Dec. 24)

While Trump's plans to implement tariffs on Canada and Mexico and to raise energy production by 3mn barrels of oil equivalent per day have grabbed headlines, we're doubtful that either will have a...

10th December 2024 · 0 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Coffee price 🏒; OPEC+ in can-kicking mode

Fans of hockey-stick graphs would appreciate recent developments in the coffee market, where prices have surged by 30%+ this month on the back of poor growing weather in Brazil. History suggests that...

29th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Tariffs & re-routing commodity trade; natural gas soars

The election victory of Donald Trump and the prospect of renewed trade restrictions has naturally sharpened attention on the potential impact of tariffs on trade flows, including on commodity trade...

22nd November 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Update

The potential losers if AGOA is removed

US President-elect Trump’s protectionist rhetoric may mean that African sovereigns are contemplating the loss of preferential trade access to the US via the AGOA scheme. We think the overall impact...

21st November 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Initial thoughts on commodities and Trump tariffs

While it is uncertain exactly how Trump will approach tariffs during a second term, China will clearly be in the firing line and commodities could be caught in the crossfire. Iron and steel, and to a...

15th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Trump and the war in Ukraine

Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the...

14th November 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Assessing the impact of the drought in Brazil

Drought conditions across parts of Brazil are not yet at the stage where there is a threat of major disruptions to electricity supply, but it has already prompted electricity prices to be hiked and...

3rd October 2024 · 5 mins read

Climate Economics Monthly

Draghi on green policies; UK farewell to coal power

Mario Draghi’s report on EU competitiveness, published this month, provided food for thought on the EU’s decarbonisation strategy. Meanwhile, with the imminent closure of the Ratcliffe-on-Soar coal...

30th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Soft demand + extra supply ⇒ lower prices

We expect most commodity prices to fall next year and our forecasts are generally below consensus. The biggest upside risk to our energy price forecasts stems from the potential for an escalation in...

24th September 2024 · 24 mins read

Commodities Update

Grain prices set to fall (if La Niña doesn’t get in the way)

While media attention has been on the soaring prices of coffee and cocoa, the prices of many grains have slid lower since the start of the year. We think that prices will fall further by the end of...

18th September 2024 · 3 mins read