Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Copper’s COMEX “crocodile” won’t snap shut Having risen to a record high this week, the spread between copper prices on the COMEX in the US and the London Metal Exchange (LME) is set to persist, and could conceivably even widen further in the... 28th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Outlook Tariff uncertainty overshadows fundamental weakness While tariffs and geopolitics complicate the near-term outlook for many commodities, the backdrop generally remains one of weak fundamentals; our end-2026 price forecasts for energy and industrial... 24th March 2025 · 23 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA’s Budget compromise, metals tariff concerns South Africa’s budget was finally delivered this week – but without the support of the ANC’s coalition partner, the DA. We suspect some form of compromise will be reached between the two parties to... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Metals tariffs in full effect; oil faces demand headwinds US steel and aluminium producers have different scopes to respond to the tariffs implemented this week, which is why we expect the price premium for aluminium in the US to persist for longer than... 14th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (March 2025) Weak global demand a risk to OPEC+ plans The recent confirmation from OPEC+ that it intends to go ahead with the plans to gradually increase oil production from April has coincided with ongoing signs... 6th March 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China NPC is no gamechanger for commodity markets Although industrial metals prices have risen following the National People’s Congress (NPC) in China, we still think that prices will fall over 2025 and 2026 given that the policies outlined do not go... 5th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update US tariffs: what next for commodity markets? Tariffs have already boosted commodity prices in the US, and the risks to global prices and trade flows will only grow if tariffs become more widespread. Our Oil and Metals Tariff Impact Trackers are... 4th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump throws more curveballs at commodity markets President Trump loomed large over commodity markets once again this week, with tariff threats and tighter sanctions. Next week, the focus will turn to the National People’s Congress in China and an... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: OPEC+ in a bind; US-Russia-Ukraine & energy markets Conflicting reports this week around OPEC+'s plan regarding unwinding its voluntary output cuts from April highlight the risks of yet another delay. While any delay would tighten the oil market at the... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Tariffs or no tariffs, LME copper prices will still fall Whilst COMEX benchmark copper prices will be heavily influenced by President Trump’s plans for tariffs in the near term, the bigger picture is that weak demand growth and robust refined copper supply... 20th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA Budget 2025, Trump Protectionism In South Africa, next week will see the Treasury present its budget for 2025, an event in which we think the government will struggle to balance the trade-offs of recommitting to fiscal tightening... 14th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump talks Ukraine peace, EU gas slides; metals tariffs The possibility of the EU increasing pipeline supplies of Russian natural gas following Trump’s announcement of peace talks with Putin has contributed to a sharp fall in EU gas prices. Whether or not... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Trump continues to strain relations with MENA President Trump’s doubling down on the future of Gaza continues to muddle efforts to bring the Middle East into the US’s sphere of influence. Meanwhile, the UAE and Bahrain are the two countries in... 13th February 2025 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update Keeping track of “cost and chaos” in metals markets Ford Chief Executive Jim Farley has poetically described the impacts in metals markets so far of President Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium as “a lot of cost and chaos”. Our new... 12th February 2025 · 0 mins read
Event Commodities Drop-In: Trump, tariffs and the commodities markets impact 1739458800 Tariffs on energy suppliers. Tariffs on metals suppliers. A push to end the Ukraine war. A National Energy Emergency. Less than one month in.
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Re-routing to become the name of the game While expectations for tariffs and sanctions have buffeted industrial metals prices this week, the lesson from previous periods has been that trade flows will readjust relatively quickly, leaving... 31st January 2025 · 4 mins read
