Commodities Update

Tariffs or no tariffs, LME copper prices will still fall

Whilst COMEX benchmark copper prices will be heavily influenced by President Trump’s plans for tariffs in the near term, the bigger picture is that weak demand growth and robust refined copper supply...

20th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: SA Budget 2025, Trump Protectionism

In South Africa, next week will see the Treasury present its budget for 2025, an event in which we think the government will struggle to balance the trade-offs of recommitting to fiscal tightening...

14th February 2025 · 7 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Trump talks Ukraine peace, EU gas slides; metals tariffs

The possibility of the EU increasing pipeline supplies of Russian natural gas following Trump’s announcement of peace talks with Putin has contributed to a sharp fall in EU gas prices. Whether or not...

14th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Trump continues to strain relations with MENA

President Trump’s doubling down on the future of Gaza continues to muddle efforts to bring the Middle East into the US’s sphere of influence. Meanwhile, the UAE and Bahrain are the two countries in...

13th February 2025 · 8 mins read

Commodities Update

Keeping track of “cost and chaos” in metals markets

Ford Chief Executive Jim Farley has poetically described the impacts in metals markets so far of President Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium as “a lot of cost and chaos”. Our new...

12th February 2025 · 0 mins read

Event

Commodities Drop-In: Trump, tariffs and the commodities markets impact

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Tariffs on energy suppliers. Tariffs on metals suppliers. A push to end the Ukraine war. A National Energy Emergency. Less than one month in. 

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Re-routing to become the name of the game

While expectations for tariffs and sanctions have buffeted industrial metals prices this week, the lesson from previous periods has been that trade flows will readjust relatively quickly, leaving...

31st January 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Iron ore to suffer from China’s property weakness

Iron ore prices have been supported by optimism that policy stimulus may prevent a marked downturn in China’s construction sector. But we think that any stimulus-led boost will prove temporary and...

27th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Cyclical oil market drivers in the ascendancy, for now

The recent rise in oil prices – to a three-month high just shy of $80pb – can be partly attributed to the apparent pick-up in activity in China at the end of 2024, which is likely to continue to...

10th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Jan. 2025)

The improvement in activity growth in China has been one reason for more bullish sentiment in the oil market around the turn of the year. However, the stimulus-fuelled cyclical upturn in China’s...

8th January 2025 · 0 mins read

Event

Drop-In: 2025 Commodities Outlook – Weak fundamentals vs geopolitical risk

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Brace for a tumultuous year in commodities markets as pressure from supply-demand dynamics is balanced by an increasingly volatile geopolitical picture.

Commodities Outlook

Weak market fundamentals; geopolitics the wildcard

Most energy and industrial metals prices will fall in 2025 as structural headwinds to demand build and supply rises. Geopolitical developments remain a key uncertainty and it is easy to think of...

13th December 2024 · 23 mins read

Commodities Weekly

China policy support is not enough to lift prices

Despite announcements of stronger policy support from China, we do not think these will be enough to lift commodity prices amid growing structural headwinds to demand. With oil demand likely to...

13th December 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Update

The potential losers if AGOA is removed

US President-elect Trump’s protectionist rhetoric may mean that African sovereigns are contemplating the loss of preferential trade access to the US via the AGOA scheme. We think the overall impact...

21st November 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Initial thoughts on commodities and Trump tariffs

While it is uncertain exactly how Trump will approach tariffs during a second term, China will clearly be in the firing line and commodities could be caught in the crossfire. Iron and steel, and to a...

15th November 2024 · 4 mins read