Commodities Weekly

China policy support is not enough to lift prices

Despite announcements of stronger policy support from China, we do not think these will be enough to lift commodity prices amid growing structural headwinds to demand. With oil demand likely to...

13th December 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Update

The potential losers if AGOA is removed

US President-elect Trump’s protectionist rhetoric may mean that African sovereigns are contemplating the loss of preferential trade access to the US via the AGOA scheme. We think the overall impact...

21st November 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Initial thoughts on commodities and Trump tariffs

While it is uncertain exactly how Trump will approach tariffs during a second term, China will clearly be in the firing line and commodities could be caught in the crossfire. Iron and steel, and to a...

15th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Trump and the war in Ukraine

Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the...

14th November 2024 · 8 mins read

Africa Economics Update

SA mining: onus is on reform for recovery

South Africa’s mining sector has been a struggling part of the economy for some time and, while easing logistical and electricity constraints will provide some relief, weaker commodity prices in the...

12th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Assessing the impacts of Trump and China stimulus

Despite his pledges to “drill, baby, drill” and dramatically raise tariffs on China, we suspect that the net impact of Trump’s policies on energy and industrial metals prices will probably be small...

8th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

OPEC+ and China, not Trump, will drive prices in 2025 Trump’s election victory won’t have a big impact on commodity markets in the short term. US oil and gas production is near record highs and prices...

7th November 2024 · 1 min read

Climate Economics Update

EU tariffs still not weighing on China's EV exports

Following a record high in August, our proprietary measure of China’s green export volumes edged down in September. Meanwhile, China’s exports of EVs to Europe surged despite the recent EU tariffs...

22nd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Oil risk premium shrinks; China leaves us guessing

The risk premium in oil prices collapsed this week after reports suggested that Israel would not target Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities in any retaliatory strike. With the fundamentals of weak oil...

18th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

All eyes on China again; Hurricane Milton fallout

While fiscal stimulus could provide some short-term support to metals prices, the key issue is that China's troubles are structural. So, China's metals demand probably won't be in a much healthier...

11th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

It’s too soon to say whether the Iranian missile strikes on Israel are the start of a conflict that will eventually result in oil supply being affected or if oil prices will drop back as the...

3rd October 2024 · 1 min read

China Economics Update

China stimulus: your questions answered

China’s recent stimulus announcements are still at the top of many investors’ minds, at least judging by the high level of client interest in the online briefing we ran on the topic yesterday. We’ve...

3rd October 2024 · 8 mins read

Commodities Weekly

China stimulus a silver bullet for metals? Think again

The stimulus packages announced by Chinese policymakers were the main reason behind the chunky increases in industrial metals prices this week, and explain why they performed better than most other...

27th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

New China stimulus won’t lift commodity demand

While the announcement of new stimulus measures by Chinese officials coincided with increases in many commodity prices, the package does not materially alter the outlook for China’s commodity demand...

25th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Soft demand + extra supply ⇒ lower prices

We expect most commodity prices to fall next year and our forecasts are generally below consensus. The biggest upside risk to our energy price forecasts stems from the potential for an escalation in...

24th September 2024 · 24 mins read