Africa Economics Update Inflation in South Africa: more downside surprises to come Inflation in South Africa is now running at extremely low rates by historic standards. While we think it will edge up from here, the extent of spare capacity in the economy and tight fiscal stance... 13th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s election: after the crisis The main presidential candidates and their parties in Ghana’s upcoming election appear to be committed to restoring fiscal discipline and getting inflation under control. That said, the opposition NDC... 3rd December 2024 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update US import tariffs: your questions answered We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked. 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB more optimistic that inflation is under control The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to lower its repo rate by 25bp to 7.75% was not a surprise and Governor Kganyago sounded more optimistic that inflation is under control. Lingering concerns... 21st November 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update The potential losers if AGOA is removed US President-elect Trump’s protectionist rhetoric may mean that African sovereigns are contemplating the loss of preferential trade access to the US via the AGOA scheme. We think the overall impact... 21st November 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s activity data signals soft end to Q3 South Africa’s activity data for September points to a subdued end to Q3, but we think this softer patch will be short-lived as low inflation and the SARB’s easing cycle provide some support to demand... 20th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What do Trump’s immigration plans mean for EMs? US President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to curb immigration and undertake a mass deportation of undocumented migrants could boost labour supply in countries that are the source of migrants. But there... 18th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA mining: onus is on reform for recovery South Africa’s mining sector has been a struggling part of the economy for some time and, while easing logistical and electricity constraints will provide some relief, weaker commodity prices in the... 12th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Godongwana talks up growth, but austerity is order of the day The South African Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) was presented as a “pro-growth” statement, but the numbers underscore that the government has no room to loosen the fiscal stance... 30th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique’s instability heightens default risks The outbreak of unrest in Mozambique after contested elections is unlikely to have a large impact on growth in the near term. But any attempts by the government to loosen fiscal policy to appease... 30th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What would Trump mean for EM monetary policy? A victory for Donald Trump in the US election would probably result in higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. That’s an environment in which central banks in EMs with strained balance sheets... 24th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s lopsided economic recovery South Africa’s economy continued to pick-up in the middle of Q3 but the recovery is taking place at different speeds across sectors; lower inflation is supporting consumer-facing sectors but industry... 16th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: MTBPS likely to double down on austerity South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will be in the unusual position of presenting the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) later this month against the backdrop of a sharp... 15th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Is Nigeria benefitting from a weaker naira? The Nigerian naira has fallen by more than 70% against the dollar since President Tinubu came to office, which has contributed to a surge in inflation that has weighed on economic growth. There are... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB cautiously cuts by 25bp The South African Reserve Bank finally joined the EM easing cycle today, lowering its repo rate by 25bp to 8.00%. While the MPC clearly has some lingering concerns about the inflation outlook, we... 19th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa Activity Data (Jul. '24) South Africa’s economy is enduring a clear divergence in its economic recovery. Consumer-facing sectors appear to be performing better but industry, particularly mining, continues to struggle. We... 18th September 2024 · 2 mins read
