The news that Russia's Gazprom has cut gas exports to Europe further this week has increased the likelihood of recessions in many countries at a time that economic activity more broadly is already weakening. Indeed, the latest surveys out this week point to a sharp slowdown in CEE. With inflation likely to reach a peak soon, we think central banks will bring their tightening cycles to an end in the coming months – and possibly as soon as next week in Czechia.
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