Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Unpacking the Trump-Putin call

The phone call between Presidents Trump and Putin this week and comments by US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth caught many by surprise, but these developments have not materially changed our view...

14th February 2025 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe Weekly: Hawks flying in CEE, growing pressure on the CBR?

Communications from central banks in Poland and Czechia this week were both on the hawkish side, but we expect a continued divergence in monetary policy over the coming year as interest rates remain...

7th February 2025 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe Weekly: Putin’s response to Trump, CEE GDP, Turkish inflation

Comments from President Putin in an interview this week add to signs that efforts to reach a peace deal in Ukraine will be challenging. Elsewhere, the Q4 figures out of Central Europe point to a...

31st January 2025 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Trump’s threat to Putin, CBRT easing, CEE growth

Comments by President Trump that he would tighten US trade and sanctions policy against Russia if Putin does not agree to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine are likely to have been received with...

24th January 2025 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel-Hamas Ceasefire, CEE Forum

The ceasefire deal agreed between Israel and Hamas this week will, if it sticks, lead to a sustained improvement in the outlook for growth, inflation and the public finances in Israel. We also outline...

17th January 2025 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Trump’s plan to end the war – is the timeline shifting?

Expectations for an imminent end to Russia’s war in Ukraine once Trump takes office as US President on 20th January took a knock this week, following an FT report and statements by officials...

10th January 2025 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Putin’s stance on Ukraine, all eyes on the CBRT

A lot of headlines from President Putin’s annual year-end press conference have focused on suggestions that he’s willing to make compromises to end the war in Ukraine. But it also remains clear that...

20th December 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Fall of Assad, new NATO spending target?

The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad last weekend is a geopolitical blow to Russia, but has been warmly welcomed by many others. Turkey, in particular, could benefit from more influence in...

13th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Romania election drama, rate cuts delayed across EE

The decision by Romania’s constitutional court to annul the first round of the presidential election today after suggestions of Russian interference has been followed by a positive reaction in Romania...

6th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

RUB under pressure, Israel ceasefire, Romania election

New US sanctions on Russia’s financial system have contributed to a sharp sell-off in the ruble this week and, while a tightening of capital controls has eased pressure on the currency over the past...

29th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Russia-Ukraine escalation, CBRT rate cut approaching?

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated this week, with Ukraine using Western-provided long-range weapons on Russian territory and Russia launching an “experimental” ballistic missile against...

22nd November 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE struggling, Turkish lira an unlikely outperformer

The Q3 GDP data released out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week has only added to worries about the health of the region’s economies, but with inflation still a concern – and in some cases...

15th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

War and peace

Donald Trump’s victory in the US election could pave the way for dialogue with Russia and a ceasefire in Ukraine, but we think it's unlikely in this scenario that sanctions on Russia would be lifted...

8th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Hungary back in recession, War in Ukraine

The Q3 GDP data out of Central Europe this week continued a bleak run of activity data for the region, with Hungary’s economy significantly underperforming expectations. The risks to our GDP growth...

1st November 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland’s retail sales shocker, BRICS and the dollar

The substantial drop in Polish retail sales in September has been interpreted by some analysts as evidence that the engine of the economy is beginning to fail, but we think that these fears are...

25th October 2024 · 7 mins read