The past month has seen Egypt’s economic crisis turn around with the devaluation of the pound, aggressive interest rate hike, and unlocking of a new IMF deal. There have been false dawns before, but this shift back toward economic orthodoxy feels more credible this time around. Elsewhere, the rollover of lower oil output levels in the Gulf will mean oil GDP remains a drag on economic growth over the first half of this year. But, as production is raised in the middle of this year, the pace of GDP growth in the Gulf will accelerate with the UAE set to be the top performer.
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