After a strong start to the year, aggregate EM GDP growth will slow over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Emerging Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard. While we expect the EM monetary easing cycle to broaden out in the second half of the year, concerns around currency weakness in parts of Asia and stubborn services inflation elsewhere mean that this process will probably be slower than we had initially thought. Meanwhile, our financial risk indicators suggest that vulnerabilities in the emerging world have eased, though some risks remain in frontier markets.
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