Tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated this week, with Ukraine using Western-provided long-range weapons on Russian territory and Russia launching an “experimental” ballistic missile against Ukraine. Further escalation is a major risk as both sides seek to improve their position and negotiating hand ahead of January, when Trump becomes US president. Meanwhile, the change in language from Turkey's central bank at its meeting this week has prompted speculation that policymakers are laying the foundations for an interest rate cut next month, but we think that looks premature.
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