Downturns in activity are bottoming out in Emerging Europe, current account deficits are narrowing and disinflation has taken hold across the region. But the road ahead still looks challenging. We expect GDP growth to disappoint expectations in most countries this year and inflation is likely to be more stubborn than most expect. In general, we think that interest rates will be cut by less than most anticipate by the end of 2024. Russia’s economy is holding up well despite the war, but tighter sanctions and lower energy prices present downside risks. And, while optimism about a shift to orthodox policymaking has taken hold in Turkey, we are sceptical about how long this will last.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services