South African SOEs have had a hard week, with demands for a bailout of Transnet being rebuffed and Eskom getting a smaller electricity price hike than it asked for. But perhaps the more important point is that the approach to dealing with these firms could cause further frictions to arise within the GNU and put the rand under renewed pressure. Elsewhere, the fall in Nigeria’s gasoline imports should ease balance of payments strains and pressure on the naira. Finally, we think the suspension of US aid presents a headwind for parts of the region, particularly in Mozambique where it could increase the chances that the government is forced to restructure its debts.
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