GDP growth is likely to pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back and gives way to monetary easing cycles whilst the external environment will also be more favourable for most. Nonetheless, tight fiscal will remain a constraint and we think GDP growth will still undershoot consensus expectations over the course of 2024-26. Debt restructuring talks in Ghana and Zambia are reaching their end-game but are proceeding slowly in Ethiopia. That reinforces fears that for other countries at risk of default, such as Mozambique, a prosaic and difficult process could await.
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