Africa Economic Outlook

A brighter outlook but a fiscal shadow

Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain...

17th December 2024 · 19 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

Lower inflation and interest rates, as well as easing supply-side constraints, should lead to a pick-up in regional growth in the coming quarters. But multiple headwinds, including (for some) a...

27th November 2024 · 0 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Rand weakness, Zambia hikes rates

The South African has been one of the worst performing EM currencies since the US election, a symptom of the “Trump trade”, but also sharp falls in the prices of key commodity exports. We expect the...

15th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Disinflation and looser monetary policy are setting the scene for stronger growth across Sub-Saharan Africa, and we expect growth to pick up in the coming quarters. But there are several headwinds...

31st October 2024 · 0 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

EM debt restructurings: light at the end of the tunnel?

Several EMs have reached provisional agreements with creditors to restructure their sovereign debts in recent months, including Zambia, Ukraine, Sri Lanka and Ghana. In principle, restructurings...

17th October 2024 · 21 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But the external environment will provide mixed fortunes, as falling...

27th September 2024 · 0 mins read

Africa Economic Outlook

Recovery to be held back by fiscal constraint

A combination of falling inflation and looser monetary policy should help growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But tight fiscal policy will constrain the recovery and...

25th September 2024 · 19 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

China-Africa lending, Zambia power cuts to bite

Data out this week showed that Chinese lending to Africa increased for the first time since 2016. But worries about convoluted debt restructuring processes mean that Chinese outbound lending to the...

30th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Aug '24)

GDP growth looks set for a modest pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back in most SSA economies and monetary easing cycles broaden out. The external environment will remain...

23rd August 2024 · 0 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2024)

GDP growth is likely to pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back in most SSA economies and monetary easing cycles broaden out. The external environment will remain challenging...

31st July 2024 · 0 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (June. 2024)

GDP growth is likely to pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back and gives way to monetary easing cycles whilst the external environment will also be more favourable for most...

28th June 2024 · 0 mins read

Africa Economic Outlook

Tight fiscal policy to constrain the recovery

Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years, helped by a more favourable external environment as well as falling inflation and interest rates. But tight fiscal...

27th June 2024 · 19 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (May. 2024)

Regional growth appears to have stabilised in Q1 and we think that a better external environment will provide a boost in the near term. Still, we think GDP growth will undershoot consensus...

28th May 2024 · 0 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2024)

Regional growth appears to have picked up in Q1 and we think that will continue, helped by an improved external environment. But inflation is set to fall back more slowly than previously expected...

25th April 2024 · 0 mins read

Africa Economics Update

The economic effects of the drought in southern Africa

El Niño is causing severe drought across much of southern Africa, which is likely to weigh on GDP, push up inflation and strain balance sheets. South Africa has also suffered water shortages, albeit...

4th April 2024 · 4 mins read