Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation eases. But this boost will be moderate with the continued tight fiscal and monetary policy still acting as a constraint, meaning our forecasts lie below the consensus for most. Public debt risks remain a key concern. Restructuring talks look set to drag on in Ethiopia and Zambia. And Mozambique is the next most at risk of a sovereign default. Kenya for now appears safe. Fiscal fears are also likely to build in South Africa ahead of the election.
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