US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The further decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a three-year low of 51.2 in July, from 51.7, confirms that the downturn in the factory sector continued into the third quarter, and suggests that... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q2) Second-quarter GDP growth slowed to 2.1% annualised, from 3.1% in the first, but that drop off would have been even bigger if not for a surprisingly strong gain in government expenditure. In short... 26th July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods & Advance Economic Indicators (Jun.) The surge in durable goods orders in June suggests that business equipment investment is holding up a bit better than we anticipated. But with the incoming global data still deteriorating and domestic... 25th July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) Industrial production was unchanged in June, as a weather-related drop in utilities output offset a 0.4% m/m rise in manufacturing output. But with global demand still weak, we doubt the latter... 16th July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (June) The 0.7% m/m surge in underlying retail sales in June, along with upward revisions to previous months’ gains, suggests that real consumption growth accelerated to 4.0% annualised in the second quarter... 16th July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The stronger 0.3% m/m gain in core consumer prices in June won’t prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates later this month and, in any case, we doubt that strength will be sustained. 11th July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 224,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June was much stronger than the consensus estimate of 160,000 and would seem to make a mockery of market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by... 5th July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (May) The sharp widening in the trade deficit to $55.5bn in May, from $51.2bn, suggests that net trade was a slightly bigger drag on second-quarter GDP growth than we had previously anticipated, with the... 3rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) Although the ISM manufacturing index didn’t fall as far as feared in June, the decline in the more forward-looking new orders component suggests the worst is still to come. 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods & Advance Economic Indicators (May) The 1.3%m/m decline in durable goods was largely a reflection of Boeing’s problems following the grounding of its 737 Max, with the rebound in underlying orders and shipments suggesting that business... 26th June 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The 0.4% m/m rebound in industrial production in May was largely due to a weather-related 2.1% m/m bounce-back in utilities output. Given the weak global backdrop and the deteriorating survey evidence... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) The stronger 0.5% m/m rise in underlying retail sales in May, along with upward revisions to previous months’ gains, suggests that real consumption growth will accelerate to almost 4% annualised in... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The subdued 0.1% gain in core consumer prices in May extends a run of weaker gains, underlining the lack of significant inflationary pressures a decade into this expansion. Subdued growth in unit... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The soft 75,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May wasn’t quite as bad as the dismal ADP employment reading earlier this week, but it is another sign that economic growth is slowing. On balance, we... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The trade deficit narrowed in April, but only because imports fell more than exports. As a result, after providing a big boost in the first quarter, we expect net external trade to have a neutral... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a 31-month low of 52.1 in May, from 52.8, illustrates that the factory sector is continuing to struggle in the face of weak global demand. It leaves the... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
