US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The modest fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.1 in February, from 50.9, leaves the index still above the levels seen over the second half of last year. Nevertheless, the survey clearly doesn’t... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) Durable goods orders were held down last month by a plunge in volatile defence orders, but the surge in underlying capital goods orders and shipments suggests business equipment investment growth is... 27th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Markit PMIs (Feb.) The big fall in the Markit composite PMI, to the lowest level since the series began in late-2009, was driven by a plunge in the services index and will inevitably raise fears about the underlying... 21st February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jan.) The unexpected weakness in underlying retail sales in January suggests that consumer spending is still struggling for momentum but, with jobs growth solid and consumer confidence resilient, we doubt... 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The continued stability of core CPI inflation in January supports our view that the Fed will not be raising interest rates again for the foreseeable future. 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 225,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in January suggests that employment benefitted from the unseasonably mild weather (it was the fifth warmest January on record), with the construction sector... 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The trade deficit widened to $48.9bn in December, from $43.7bn, as imports rebounded by 2.7% m/m, outpacing a 0.8% m/m gain in exports. The rebound in imports partly reflected the unwinding of... 5th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The sharp rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to a six-month high of 50.9 in January, from 47.8, echoes the message from the other surveys that the prospects for factory sector activity are... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q4) The 2.1% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was not quite as solid as it looked, with consumption growth slowing and business investment contracting for a third consecutive quarter. Nevertheless... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec.) The December durable goods data suggest that business equipment investment fell again in the fourth quarter. But the recent improvement in the survey evidence suggests it should soon start to rebound... 28th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The 0.3% fall in industrial production in December was entirely due to a weather-related slump in utilities output. The latest surveys suggest that the tentative recovery in manufacturing output is a... 17th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) Retail sales increased by a moderate 0.3% m/m in December, as a price-related 2.8% m/m surge in the value of gasoline station sales helped to offset a 1.3% m/m drop back in motor vehicle sales... 16th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The more muted 0.1% rise in core consumer prices in December suggests that the trend in underlying inflation is still close to 2%. With wage growth also moderating in recent months, there will be... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The slowdown in payroll growth to a solid 145,000 last month shows that the economy is still creating more than enough jobs to keep pace with population growth. With economic growth bottoming out and... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The sharp narrowing in the trade deficit to $43.1bn in November, from $46.9bn, was driven by another fall in imports that will be reversed in the coming months. Nevertheless, net trade appears to have... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The further decline in the ISM manufacturing index in December, to its lowest level since June 2009, at face value suggests the US economy is teetering on the brink of recession. But it’s hard to put... 3rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
