US Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The sharp fall in the trade deficit in January was mainly due to a larger than expected drop in imports, which is hardly a positive sign for the economy. Nonetheless, with imports likely to have been... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) The further decline in manufacturing output in February confirms that the global industrial slowdown is now weighing more heavily on US producers. With tighter fiscal and monetary policy constraining... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) & Producer Prices (Feb.) The rebound in underlying capital goods orders in January stands out as a positive amid the recent flood of downbeat activity data, but it is still consistent with a gradual slowdown in business... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) With headline CPI inflation edging down to a two-and-a-half-year low of 1.5% in February, from 1.6%, and core inflation dropping to a four-month low of 2.1%, from 2.2%, the Fed would appear to be... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The 1.1% m/m rebound in control group retail sales in January provides some reassurance that consumer spending isn’t falling off a cliff. But with sales now estimated to have plunged by an even... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The slump in payroll employment growth in February reinforces the message from the incoming activity data that economic growth is slowing below its 2% potential pace in the first quarter. That makes... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The widening in the trade deficit to a 10-year high in December confirms that net trade was a drag on GDP growth in fourth quarter, and the weakening global backdrop suggests that drag will intensify... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The drop in the ISM manufacturing index to a near-three-year low is a clear sign that US manufacturers are getting hit by the broader global industrial downturn. While higher interest rates and the... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4) GDP increased by 2.9% last year, up from 2.2% in 2017, but that acceleration is no surprise given the size of the fiscal stimulus introduced early last year. As the stimulus fades and the lagged... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec.) The weakness of underlying durable goods orders in December suggests that equipment investment growth slowed further in the fourth quarter, and we expect it to remain weak for most of this year. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The 0.6% m/m decline in industrial production in January was driven by a 0.9% drop in manufacturing output, suggesting that the US is now succumbing to the industrial downturn already evident across... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) & Producer Prices (Jan.) The unexpected plunge in control group retail sales in December means that fourth-quarter GDP growth was probably nearer 2.5% annualised than the 3.1% we had pencilled in and, more worryingly, it also... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The decline in headline CPI inflation to a 19-month low of 1.6% in January, from 1.9%, was due principally to a sharp decline in energy prices. Excluding food and energy, core CPI inflation remained... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The unexpected narrowing in the trade deficit to $49.3bn in November, from $55.7bn, suggests that trade made a small positive contribution to GDP growth in the fourth quarter, but only because imports... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in January provides further reassurance that economic growth has remained solid at the beginning of 2019. We still expect a combination of weaker global... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 304,000 surge in non-farm payrolls in January was partly offset by a downward revision to the December gain, but still illustrates that economic growth remains solid and that the government... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
