US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The 0.4% m/m decline in industrial production in September was principally due to the GM strike, which dragged down autos production, and the unseasonably warm weather, which depressed utilities... 17th October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The drop back in retail sales in September was driven partly by a price-related drop in gasoline sales, but the fact that underlying control group retail sales were unchanged provides another clear... 16th October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The muted gain in core consumer prices in September illustrates that, even after the introduction of additional tariffs on Chinese imports, inflationary pressures are still well contained. In that... 10th October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) & International Trade (Aug.) The 136,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September illustrates that while growth in employment (and broader activity) has slowed, it is not collapsing. Otherwise, the employment report was... 4th October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The slump in the ISM manufacturing index to a decade low of 47.8 in September, from 49.1, will reignite fears that the US economy is headed for a recession. Our guess is that this deterioration is at... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods, Personal Income & Spending (Aug.) The modest rise in personal spending in August suggests that third-quarter consumption growth was weaker than we had previously anticipated, while the durable goods data indicate that business... 27th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) The stronger-than-expected 0.6% m/m rebound in industrial production in August, which was driven by manufacturing, suggests that the drag on US producers from weaker global demand may be starting to... 17th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The 0.4% m/m increase in retail sales in August, which was well above the consensus expectation at 0.2% m/m, was helped by a suspicious looking 1.8% m/m increase in motor vehicle sales. Otherwise... 13th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further rise in core CPI inflation to an 11-year high of 2.4% in August won’t stop the Fed from cutting interest rates again next week, but it does provide further reason to believe that market... 12th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) The 130,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in August was flattered by the hiring of 25,000 temporary workers to help prepare for next year’s census. More generally, there has been a clear... 6th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The small narrowing in the trade deficit in July was driven by a rise in exports and leaves net trade on track to be nothing worse than a small drag on GDP growth in the third quarter. But that drag... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 49.1 in August, from 51.2, left the index at its lowest level since January 2016 and points to another 25bp rate cut at the Fed’s meeting later this month. 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The soft July industrial production data show that the manufacturing recession continued into the third quarter. But the latest surveys provide some reason for optimism and, as the retail sales data... 15th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (July) With the rest of the world sliding into the abyss, the July retail sales figures show a resurgent US consumer riding to the rescue once again. Even though the surge in retail sales in July was... 15th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The stronger than expected 0.3% m/m rise in core consumer prices in July, which followed a similar-sized gain in June, suggests that underlying inflationary pressures may not be as subdued as is... 13th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) The 164,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in July confirms that employment growth is trending lower, but it also suggests that the economy is still coping reasonably well amidst concerns over weaker... 2nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
