The 1.3%m/m decline in durable goods was largely a reflection of Boeing’s problems following the grounding of its 737 Max, with the rebound in underlying orders and shipments suggesting that business equipment investment wasn’t quite as soft as we feared in the second quarter. Unfortunately, the advance economic indicators report suggests that next external trade was a bigger drag than we had allowed for, meaning that second-quarter GDP growth was 1.7% annualised, rather than the 2.0% we previously had pencilled in.
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