US Data Response Durable Goods (Nov.) The unexpected 2.0% m/m decline in November’s durable goods orders was largely due to a massive slump in defence aircraft, alongside a small dip in commercial aircraft orders. Nevertheless, excluding... 23rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The 1.1% surge in manufacturing output last month reflected both a rebound in autos output following the end of the GM strike and a healthy gain in underlying production. Boeing’s decision to halt... 17th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The disappointing 0.2% m/m rise in retail sales in November suggests that real consumption growth was a little weaker in the fourth quarter than the 2.0% annualised reading we had pencilled in, but... 13th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) A rise in energy prices pushed headline CPI inflation up to a one-year high last month, but the stability of core inflation suggests that underlying price pressures remain subdued. In that environment... 11th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The much stronger than expected 266,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November was flattered by the return of 41,000 striking GM workers but, even allowing for that, it suggests labour market... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The sharp narrowing of the trade deficit, to a 16-month low in October, was distorted by a GM-strike related fall in auto imports and a big drop back in consumer goods imports, as the stockpiling... 5th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The small decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.1 in November, from 48.3, left it close to the decade-low reached in September. Despite the improvement some of the alternative manufacturing... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Oct.) & GDP (Q3, 2nd Estimate) The rise in durable goods orders last month was driven by a surge in orders for underlying capital goods, suggesting that business equipment investment is holding up better than anticipated. Together... 27th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The 0.8% m/m plunge in industrial production last month was almost entirely due to the strike at GM and a weather-related fall in utilities output. With the strike now over, and much of the country... 15th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales in October illustrates that while consumer spending growth is slowing gradually, it remains a relative bright spot. We expect real consumption growth to slow to... 15th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The larger 0.4% rise in consumer prices last month was mainly due to higher gasoline prices, with little sign of the September tariffs pushing up prices of consumer goods. If anything, underlying... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) The narrowing in the trade deficit to $52.5bn in September, from $55.0bn, confirms that net trade was broadly neutral for third-quarter GDP growth, although we expect it to become a renewed drag in... 5th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The muted rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.3 in October, which left it only slightly higher that September’s decade low of 47.8, takes some of the shine off the better-than-expected... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The solid 128,000 gain in non-farm payrolls was more impressive than it looked given it was depressed by the GM strike and a census-related drop in Federal employment. Together with upward revisions... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q3) The 1.9% annualised increase in third-quarter GDP, down only marginally from the 2.0% gain in the second, was a little stronger than we had expected. But it still pushed the economy’s annual growth... 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Sep.) The 1.1% m/m decline in durable goods orders in September was only partly due to the GM strike, with an unexpected decline in commercial aircraft orders and weakness in underlying orders also... 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
