US Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The 1.1% surge in manufacturing output in December, which admittedly was boosted by some temporary factors, suggests that US is not (yet) succumbing to the global industrial slowdown. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The 0.1% m/m fall in headline consumer prices in December won’t concern the Fed as it can be explained by the plunge in gasoline prices. But the 0.2% m/m gain in core prices, which left the core CPI... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The far bigger than expected 312,000 jump in non-farm payrolls in December would seem to make a mockery of market fears of an impending recession. Admittedly, employment is a coincident indicator... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The sharp fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 54.1 in December, from 59.3, echoes the deterioration in the other manufacturing surveys and suggests that the slowdown in global growth is starting to... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods; Personal Income & Spending (Nov.) The 0.8% m/m rebound in durable goods orders in November masked further weakness in underlying orders, suggesting that growth in business equipment investment continued to slow in the fourth quarter... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The 0.6% m/m rise in headline industrial production last month was entirely due to a surge in mining and utilities output, which will be reversed over the coming months. The bigger story is the... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The 0.9% m/m surge in underlying retail sales in November, which followed an upwardly-revised 0.7% gain in October, suggests that real consumption growth has remained stronger in the fourth quarter... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The recent plunge in energy prices pushed headline CPI inflation down to 2.2% in November and will exert further downward pressure over the coming months. More important for the Fed is the continued... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The slightly more modest 155,000 gain in payroll employment in November may not go down well in markets given the current heightened nervousness, but this is still a solid gain that suggests economic... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) & ADP Employment (Nov.) The widening in the trade deficit to $55.5bn in October, from $54.6bn, was mainly driven by a further plunge in exports to China, and suggests that net trade will once again be a drag on GDP growth in... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in November primarily reflects the strength of domestic demand and provides some support to our forecast that GDP will expand by 2.7% annualised in the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Oct.) Ignore the 4.4% fall in durable goods orders last month, it was mostly due to a drop back in defence orders. The genuine bad news here is the fact that underlying capital goods orders and shipments... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The subdued 0.1% m/m rise in industrial production in October was partly the result of temporary disruptions linked to Hurricane Michael, with manufacturing output continuing to expand at a healthy... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) Looking beyond the 0.8% surge in headline retail sales, which was boosted by a price-related rise in gasoline sales, there are signs that underlying spending growth has begun to slow. Even accounting... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The rebound in headline CPI inflation to 2.5% in October, from 2.3%, was mostly driven by a rise in gasoline prices that will be more than reversed over the next couple of months. The rest of the... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) & International Trade (Sep.) The 250,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in October, following a more modest 118,000 gain in September, confirms that Hurricane Florence temporarily depressed employment in September. The BLS suggests... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
