US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The weakness of the April durable goods data, which showed underlying orders unchanged following a downwardly-revised plunge in March, provides further evidence that economic growth is slowing sharply... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Apr.) The weaker tone of April’s activity data, with control group retail sales unchanged and manufacturing output falling sharply, supports our view that GDP growth is set to slow in the second quarter. 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The subdued 0.1% m/m gain in core consumer prices last month was in part driven by falls in clothing and used car prices, which may be reversed in the coming months. But the bigger story has been the... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) & Producer Prices (Apr.) With the rising possibility of a big escalation in the US-China trade dispute this week, March’s trade figures could represent the calm before the storm. The trade deficit widened trivially to $50.0bn... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The 263,000 surge in payroll employment in April was much better than we had expected and kept the six-month trend above 200,000. Some of the details were less positive, with hours worked falling back... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The slump in the ISM manufacturing index to a 2½-year low in April illustrates that, after the contraction in manufacturing output in the first quarter, US factory conditions have deteriorated further... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1) The 3.2% annualised gain in first-quarter GDP, which was well above the consensus forecast at 2.0%, would seem to make a mockery of claims that the economy is slowing as the fiscal stimulus fades... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The strong rise in underlying capital goods orders in March, together with stronger retail sales last month, suggests the economy is carrying a bit more momentum into the second quarter. But a drop... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The 1.0% m/m rebound in control group retail sales in March was not enough to prevent real consumption growth from slowing sharply in the first quarter, although it does at least provide a decent base... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) After falling sharply in January, the trade deficit declined a little further in February thanks to a jump in civilian aircraft exports and a subdued gain in imports. Neither of those are particularly... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.1% m/m decline in industrial production in March completed a weak first quarter in which industrial production contracted by 0.3% annualised, as the US factory sector succumbed to the global... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The further decline in core CPI inflation to a 13-month low of 2.0% in March underlines that there is little chance of inflation breaking out above the Fed’s target any time soon. We continue to... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The 196,000 gain in non-farm payrolls March will be greeted with a sigh of relief after the disappointing 33,000 increase in February, but employment growth is nevertheless on a downward trend – with... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 1.6% m/m decline in February’s durable goods orders was principally due to a 31.1% m/m drop back in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft orders component. Nevertheless, even putting that... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The modest rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 55.3 in March, from 54.2, offers some reassurance that the US factory sector isn’t following its European counterpart off a cliff, although the... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The decline in underlying retail sales in February was offset by upward revisions to previous months, but real consumption growth still appears to have slowed sharply in the first quarter. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
