US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The 16.4% m/m plunge in retail sales last month leaves sales 21% lower than in February, a slightly bigger hit to consumption from the lockdowns than we had anticipated. Even with many states now... 15th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The 0.8% m/m fall in consumer prices last month reflects the sharp drop in energy prices together with an unprecedented 0.4% m/m fall in core CPI. But the latter was largely due to very big declines... 12th May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The loss of 20.5 million jobs in April was largely as expected based on the tsunami of jobless claims and, although the unemployment rate only climbed to 14.7%, slightly below expectations, that was... 8th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The widening in the trade deficit to $44.4bn in March, from $39.8bn, came as a further fall in imports was outpaced by a plunge in exports, with both driven by a collapse in international travel and... 5th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The drop in the ISM manufacturing index to 41.5 in April, from 49.1, was more modest than we and the consensus expected and leaves it at a level consistent with GDP falling at a 5% annualised pace... 1st May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q1) Since the pandemic-related lockdowns only really began in earnest in the final two weeks of the quarter, the 4.8% annualised decline in GDP over the first quarter as-a-whole illustrates that activity... 29th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The 14.4% m/m slump in durable goods orders in March was principally due to a massive 295.7% m/m decline in commercial aircraft orders, with core orders down by only 0.2%m/m. The upshot is that... 24th April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The 5.4% m/m plunge in industrial production in March, which was the sharpest monthly fall since 1946, highlights that while coronavirus containment measures have primarily slammed the brakes on... 15th April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The 8.7% fall in retail sales last month suggests that first-quarter real consumption declined by up to 5% annualised. As the lockdowns were only introduced in the middle of last month, however, a... 15th April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The 0.4% m/m decline in consumer prices in March, which was principally due to a 10.5% m/m drop in gasoline prices, pushed the annual rate of headline CPI inflation down to 1.5%, from 2.3%. But that... 10th April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The 701,000 plunge in non-farm payrolls in March, which is already close to the worst monthly declines during the Global Financial Crisis, suggests the coronavirus pandemic started to decimate the... 3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The marginal fall in the headline ISM manufacturing index to 49.1 in March, from 50.1, indicates that the initial hit to the factory sector from the coronavirus was more muted than feared. With many... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The rise in durable goods orders in February reflected a surge in transport orders, with underlying capital goods orders and shipments falling back. That suggests business equipment investment was on... 25th March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Feb.) The February retail sales data provide further evidence that the economy was in reasonable shape before the coronavirus struck, but that won't prevent spending from falling sharply over the next few... 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The drop back in CPI inflation to 2.3% in February, from 2.5%, is a sign of things to come, with the plunge in crude oil prices likely to drag headline CPI inflation below 1.0% soon. With underlying... 11th March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The 273,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February confirms that the US economy was in very good shape before the coronavirus hit. Nevertheless, with the 10-year Treasury yield slumping to a new record... 6th March 2020 · 2 mins read
