US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a six-month low of 57.7 in October, from 59.8, leaves it still at a relatively high level by past standards. Nevertheless, it does suggest that the... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 1st Estimate) At 3.5% annualised, GDP growth remained unusually strong in the third quarter, thanks partly to this year’s fiscal stimulus, but there are signs that higher interest rates are beginning to have a... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods & Advance Economic Indicators (Sep.) The September durable goods data confirm that equipment investment growth rebounded in the third quarter, although the recent slowdown in new orders growth suggests that strength won’t be sustained. 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The modest 0.3% m/m rise in industrial production last month was driven by continued gains in manufacturing output, suggesting that the sector is holding up better than we had anticipated. But the... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) Despite the disappointing 0.1% m/m rise in headline retail sales in September, the strength of underlying sales suggests that third-quarter real consumption growth slowed only gradually to 3.5%... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The second consecutive modest rise in core consumer prices in September, together with the sell-off in the stock market, won’t be enough to prevent the “crazy’ Fed from raising rates again in December... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) & International Trade (Aug.) The weaker 134,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September may well be a one-off, reflecting some hit from Hurricane Florence. With large upward revisions to previous months’ payroll gains, a fall in... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The small decline in the headline ISM manufacturing index last month from a 14-year high in August still leaves it at an unusually high level, but it is difficult to square with the slowdown in global... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods & Advance Economic Indicators (Aug.) The weakness of underlying capital goods shipments and goods exports in August means that, even though inventories will still make a big positive contribution, we now forecast that third-quarter GDP... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) The more modest 0.2% m/m gain in manufacturing output in August provides further evidence that the appreciation of the dollar over the past six months is now beginning to weigh more heavily on output... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Although retail sales were weaker than we had been expecting in August specifically, upward revisions to sales in previous months mean that real consumption growth still appears to have remained... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The more modest 0.1% m/m increase in core consumer prices in August is unlikely to derail the Fed’s plans to continue hiking interest rates once a quarter, with another increase coming later this... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) The 201,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in August all-but guarantees that the Fed will raise interest rates later this month, particularly as wage growth reached a nine-year high. 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The sharp widening in the nominal trade deficit to a five-month high of $50.1bn in July, from $45.7bn, suggests that the big boost to GDP growth from net exports in the second quarter will be reversed... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The surge in the ISM manufacturing index in August to a 14-year high is hard to square with other evidence, which indicates that growth in the factory sector is slowing. The details suggest that... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The rebound in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence measure to a 17-year high of 133.4 in August is primarily a reflection of the current strength of the economy, but with the expectations index... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
