In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews upcoming US PCE inflation data, outlines the fiscal challenges facing the next UK Chancellor and explains how Chinese manufacturing overcapacity isn’t just a problem for advanced economies.
Plus, Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann discusses the growing bubble in US stocks – and why we think it can continue to inflate for now.
And Shilan Shah, our India Economics lead, is on the show to talk about how the Indian economy is likely to fare in Narendra Modi’s third term, and why – despite widespread optimism – investors need to be clear-eyed about the country’s long-term challenges.
Analysis and events referenced in this episode:
Could new fiscal rules spur on the economy?
The current fiscal framework is not perfect and could be reformed to improve investor confidence in the management of the public finances, tilt the composition of spending towards investment and
EMs are a growing market for Chinese green exports
The continued divergence between export values and export volumes of the “New Three” underlines the downward pressure on prices from the rapid expansion in manufacturing capacity in China. Meanwhile
UK Drop-In: The General Election results – The morning after and the macro/markets outlook
Will the outcome of the UK general election move the dial on the UK economic outlook? How much would a Labour government deviate from Conservative economic policy? What does a change of government...
China New Three Export Indices
Drop-In: French election outcome – Fiscal policy outlook and market risk
Will this snap election mark the end of the France's political turmoil? And will the election results convince the bond vigilantes to stand down? Our senior Europe and Markets economists held this...
AI bubble could continue to inflate, in the US and globally
We think the S&P 500 will make further gains over the coming months, even though it’s already fared well this year and is approaching our existing end-year forecast. As such, we’ve revised that
Economy in good shape as Modi 3.0 begins
Overview – Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become
What could go wrong?
Positivity surrounding India’s near and long-term economic outlook is arguably at its highest in a decade, with good reason. But amid the optimism, it is easy to become complacent to the downside