Europe Economics Weekly No economic bazooka in German election manifestos The election manifestos of Germany’s main political parties, which were published this week, confirm that a radical change in economic policy and/or a big fiscal stimulus after the upcoming general... 20th December 2024 · 10 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA activity, naira gains to fade, Ghana election While data out this week showed renewed struggles in South Africa’s mining sector, other figures suggest that a recovery has taken hold in Q4, which should accelerate next year with help from lower... 13th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to EM elections in 2025 2025 will be a far quieter year in terms of elections than this year was. But there are some key votes that will, among other things, determine whether Argentina’s President Milei builds support for... 10th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA GDP, Biden’s Angola visit, Ghana election The surprise 0.3% q/q contraction in South Africa’s GDP was largely due to a slump in agriculture which should unwind. Along with low inflation and continued monetary easing, we expect the economic... 6th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s election: after the crisis The main presidential candidates and their parties in Ghana’s upcoming election appear to be committed to restoring fiscal discipline and getting inflation under control. That said, the opposition NDC... 3rd December 2024 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Don’t expect a big fiscal stimulus in Germany It now seems increasingly likely that, as we had been expecting, Germany will loosen its strict fiscal rule after the upcoming general election. However, hopes of a big fiscal stimulus are likely to... 28th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update What have we learnt about Trump’s climate policy? Unsurprisingly, a second Trump presidency will support oil and gas production while rolling back environmental regulations. The fate of the Inflation Reduction Act is less certain, given that the... 22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Why the Maharashtra election matters for investors State elections in India matter for economic policy but next week’s vote in Maharashtra holds more significance than most others. Economically it is India's most important state and developments there... 15th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly How Europe will try to defuse a Trump trade war Following the US election, our working assumption is that the US imposes a 10% universal tariff next year which subtracts around 0.2% from euro-zone GDP – somewhat less than many estimate. But the EU... 8th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Event Drop-In: Trump's second term - Macro and market implications 1730898000 Our senior economist team were online the day after the election to help clients understand the economic and market implications of what we know so far - and what's still to b
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal dominance, Mexico’s Trump risk, Uruguay votes Hawkish comments from Brazil's central bank amid concerns that the economy is overheating and that the narrative that ‘fiscal dominance’ may take hold suggest that Copom is likely to step up the pace... 25th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Trump trade comes for gold; palladium surges Having behaved “normally” over the summer, gold prices have slipped back into anti-traditional-driver mode in recent weeks, seemingly caught up in a wider “Trump trade”. One can – and plenty surely... 25th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The macro & market implications of the US election We held online Drop-In sessions with clients this week to discuss how we factor the US election into our thinking on the macro and market outlook for the US and other parts of the world. This Update... 24th October 2024 · 10 mins read
