UK Economics Update How far UK defence spending will rise and what this means for GDP The Prime Minister’s announcement that defence spending will rise from 2.3% of GDP now to 2.5% by 2027 is likely to be only the start of a more substantial and longer-lasting increase in defence... 25th February 2025 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Dec. 2024) The stronger 0.5% m/m rise in house prices in December suggests sellers still have the upper hand despite more homes coming onto the market and weak buyer demand. This raises the risk that we have... 25th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Inflation rises ahead of growing tariff threats The January CPI release highlighted the upside risks to the inflation outlook but, with US tariff threats continuing to pile up, there is still good reason for the Bank of Canada to continue its... 21st February 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump turns the screw on tariffs One month after returning to the White House, President Donald Trump continues to issue new tariff threats, this week taking aim at imports of motor vehicles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. His... 21st February 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We see more downside for JGBs, upside for the yen Today’s inflation and PMI data in Japan bolster our view that the 10-year JGB yield will continue to rise. We are sticking to our forecast that it will end 2025 at 1.75%, as the BoJ tightens policy by... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Jan. 2025) The fall in existing home sales in January reflects weak deal-making at the end of last year due to the surge in mortgage rates. Given that borrowing costs have stayed above 7% since then, we expect... 21st February 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Rebound in inflation could spell trouble for the BoE With households particularly sensitive to rising food and energy prices, we're becoming more worried that the Bank of England can't ignore the big increase in food inflation in January and the coming... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jan. 2025) The leap in retail sales volumes in January shows that the retail sector shot out of the blocks at the start of the year. But some of that strength will have come at the expense of weakness in other... 21st February 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jan. 2025) While January’s disappointing public finances figures may not be as bad as they first appear, they continue the run of bad news for the Chancellor in 2025 and underline the difficult choices she faces... 21st February 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Strong inflation underpinned by soaring labour costs With the economy growing well above trend and inflation double the Bank of Japan's target, the financial markets are starting to come around to our view that the Bank will lift its policy rate to 1%... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA’s hands tied by the tight labour market When the RBA cut rates by 25bp this week, it made it painfully clear that any further loosening of policy settings would be modest given the strong labour market. The Bank's concerns seem to be well... 21st February 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (February 25) The further rebound in the composite PMI in February coupled with the persistent strength in manufacturing output prices suggests that the Bank of Japan won’t wait long before hiking rates again 21st February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2025) With Treasury yields rising in Q4 and property cap rates falling for the first time since mid-2022, our property valuation scores declined across the board. This supports our view that the recovery in... 20th February 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) The latest data suggest that, outside China, the world economy lost a bit of momentum heading into 2025. Around the turn of the year, manufacturing output kept treading water, retail sales weakened in... 20th February 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Jan. 25) The acceleration in headline inflation and strength in underlying inflation in January should add to the Bank of Japan’s confidence that it can continue its tightening cycle over the coming quarters... 20th February 2025 · 2 mins read
