UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Oct. 2024) October’s disappointing public finances figures underline the fiscal challenge that the Chancellor still faces, despite the big increases in spending and taxes announced in the Budget. And while the... 21st November 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the... 21st November 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Our new forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower and not as far means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% in October to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still... 20th November 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update What is behind the slumping participation rate? The slump in the participation rate this year at least partly reflects the cyclical weakness of hiring, which means that the labour market is weaker than the unemployment rate alone might suggest. The... 20th November 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Oct. 2024) October’s surprisingly large rebound in CPI inflation from 1.7% to 2.3% (CE 2.1%, consensus & BoE 2.2%) won’t stop the Bank of England from cutting interest rates further. But it lends some support to... 20th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ still on track to cut rates to 2.25% We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its policy rate by 50bp, to 4.25%, at its meeting next week. With inflation back at target, the labour market loosening rapidly and activity in the... 20th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Oct. 2024) With headline inflation still at target and given the Bank’s recent emphasis on the need to ensure that GDP growth and the labour market pick up again, the upside surprise to core inflation in October... 19th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Bonds & Equities We still see most yields falling despite higher Treasury yields Higher US interest rates will probably continue to weigh on government bonds globally. But we still expect bond yields in most developed market (DM) economies to fall back by the end of 2025, as... 19th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Muted housing recovery won’t prevent rapid rate cuts While we expect the RBNZ to cut interest rates by the most since the GFC over the coming year, housing affordability was never as stretched at the start of an easing cycle as it was at the start of... 19th November 2024 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily We expect US equities to remain bond-proof Although last week’s pull-back in the S&P 500 coincided with a big increase in the 10-year TIPS yield, we don’t think this marks the start of prolonged period of weakness in US equities driven by... 18th November 2024 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) In response to Donald Trump’s election win and the likelihood that his policies will be inflationary, we have revised up our forecast for the terminal fed funds target range in 2025 by 50bp, to... 18th November 2024 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Focus Silver tsunami to boost senior housing The recent downturn in US commercial property has piqued investor interest in alternatives as they look to diversify. With an aging population, senior housing has a clear long run structural demand... 18th November 2024 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rising household size will weigh on house prices A plunge in the average household size kept housing demand strong during the pandemic even as population growth ground to a halt. RBA estimates suggest that the average household size has remained low... 18th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada yet to shake off inflation risks The US election outcome means that Canada and the US will not be trading friendship bracelets anytime soon and leaves the risks to inflation more finely balanced, but we still think that growth... 15th November 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation surprise not enough to prevent December cut While the hotter-than-expected October price data serve as a reminder that the Fed’s fight against inflation is not over, we don't think this is enough to prevent a December rate cut. This could... 15th November 2024 · 5 mins read
