US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) The latest FOMC meeting suggests the Fed already has its eye on President-elect Donald Trump’s inflationary policy changes. We have therefore revised up our forecast for the terminal fed funds target... 23rd December 2024 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Atlanta, Dallas, Houston and Phoenix to lead the way Our apartment metro forecasts continue to show significant variation between metros, even within regions. For example, while we expect continued strong demand growth in the South – especially in... 23rd December 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q3 2024 2nd Estimate) The downward revision to Q3 GDP from +0.1% q/q to 0.0% isn’t quite as bad as it looks and leaves scope for a lively debate with the family over the festive period about whether or not the economy is... 23rd December 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Is the party really over for US equities? We are sticking to our forecast that the S&P 500 will end next year at 7,000, despite its slump since this week’s FOMC meeting. That’s even though we think Fed policy will be a bit less accommodative... 20th December 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Policy uncertainty clouds the outlook for 2025 Earlier this week we published our US Outlook. We expect the incoming Trump administration’s policies to have a mildly stagflationary impact on the economy. Assuming that Trump introduces tariffs and... 20th December 2024 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trudeau Jr.’s turn for a “walk in the snow” Forty years on from his father famously resigning as Prime Minister following a solo walk through an Ottawa snowstorm, reports suggest Justin Trudeau is mulling the same decision after a tumultuous... 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What we got right and wrong and three ‘cases’ for 2025 We think stronger GDP growth, falling inflation and gradual interest rate cuts will be the key themes that shape 2025. But recent economic data have raised the chances that high inflation combines... 20th December 2024 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Nov) The 0.11% m/m increase in core PCE prices in November was the smallest gain in six months, although it follows on the heels of two above-target ~0.25% gains in the preceding two months. That November... 20th December 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Retail Sales (Oct. 2024) Retail sales volumes were unchanged in October, bringing a run of strong consecutive monthly gains to an end. Moreover, the preliminary estimate that sales values were unchanged in November too... 20th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BoJ still signalling room – and desire – to hike further Governor Ueda delivered two messages in the press conference after yesterday’s policy meeting: first, the Bank of Japan thinks that policy normalisation is still on track and it intends to raise rates... 20th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA Board, Aus. Budget Update, NZ GDP Although the Australian Treasurer’s new appointments to the RBA’s monetary policy committee were well received, the same cannot be said of his mid-year Budget Update. The government appears intent on... 20th December 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Nov. 2024) The 0.2% m/m rebound in retail sales volumes in November was slightly worse than expected (consensus +0.5% m/m) and leaves sales on course to decline in Q4 overall. And although that will bring little... 20th December 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Nov. 2024) Christmas has come early for the Chancellor with borrowing undershooting expectations in November. But the weakening in the economy and recent rises in market interest rates suggests the government... 20th December 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Expect huge divergence in performance between metros We expect there will continue to be major divergence between the winning and losing metros. We think the major markets and tech-centric western markets will continue to fare poorly thanks to low... 19th December 2024 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Nov. 2024) The increase in existing home sales in November, despite rising mortgage rates and weakening mortgage applications the month before, points to stronger demand from cash buyers, possibly driven by... 19th December 2024 · 2 mins read
