Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) & Switzerland GDP (Q3) The strong set of manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the Nordics in November suggests that the industrial rebound gathered momentum in Q4, in keeping with the picture in German industry. This... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response India Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The drop in India’s manufacturing PMI in November comes as no surprise given that it hit a decade high in October. The big picture is that the reading is still consistent with a decent recovery in... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The Caixin manufacturing PMI hit a decade high in November. The official survey released yesterday also rose, to its highest in three years. While the rebound in industry will eventually lose steam... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) PMI readings for Asia suggest that manufacturing conditions improved significantly in November. Buoyant global demand for electronics should continue to support the sector over the coming months. 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market (Oct.) & Capex (Q3 2020) While the unemployment rate rose in October, with the job-to-applicant ratio edging up, it’s unlikely to rise much further. Meanwhile, capital spending data suggest that business investment may have... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Government plans investment of up to 4.3% of GDP The government announced today that it expects to spend an additional $50bn this fiscal year to combat the damage from the second wave of the coronavirus. It also laid out plans for an investment... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update New GDP forecasts: weak end to 2020, better 2021 The recent surge in coronavirus infections means that economic growth will be slower than we previously assumed in both the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. As the associated... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland KOF Economic Barometer (Nov.) The decline in the KOF Economic Barometer in November adds to signs that the rebound in Swiss GDP shifted into reverse in Q4. However, given the government’s decision to resist a nationwide lockdown... 30th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Sharp recovery means negative rates now unlikely New Zealand is likely to be one of the few countries where output had recovered to pre-virus levels in Q3. Taken together with the recent positive news on the vaccine, we no longer expect the RBNZ to... 30th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Labour markets prove resilient We have been arguing for some time that the unemployment rate would not rise as much as most believed in either Australia or New Zealand. We remain confident in those forecasts. Admittedly, the... 30th November 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3) Turkey’s economy recorded a strong 15.6% q/q rebound in Q3 from its collapse in Q2, but lingering weakness in the tourism sector as well as the recent tightening of both virus containment measures and... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Nov.) The latest official PMI surveys show that the pace of economic growth picked up in November on the back of a broad-based improvement in both services and manufacturing. 30th November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Oxford vaccine is a shot in the arm for the economy The distribution of an effective COVID-19 vaccine in India would significantly improve the near-term economic outlook, and we have revised up our GDP forecasts for 2021 and 2022. But the economy will... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Oct.) Retail sales rose in October, but as both values and volumes are now above pre-virus levels they’re unlikely to rise much further and could edge down amidst the third wave. Meanwhile, industrial... 30th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q4 contraction before fairly quick rebound in 2021 Following the flurry of positive news on vaccines, we have revised up our economic forecasts for 2021 and 2022. Among the major economies, we think that Germany will be the standout performer. Spain... 27th November 2020 · 8 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) The y/y slump in Indian GDP eased substantially in Q3 (Q2 of FY20/21), but output was still 9% below its pre-virus level last quarter. Looking ahead, encouraging news on vaccines has brightened the... 27th November 2020 · 2 mins read
