Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1, Prov.) The 1.6% q/q drop in Mexico’s GDP in Q1 was slightly better than many had expected, but the outturn in Q2 is likely to be much worse. We expect an 8% fall in GDP over this year as a whole – one of the... 30th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q1) & Unemployment (Mar.) Italy’s economy experienced a bigger contraction than the euro-zone average in Q1. And the closure of non-essential businesses at the end of March means that it is set for a much deeper downturn in Q2... 30th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1), HICP (Apr.), Unemp. (Mar.) The blizzard of depressing economic data released this morning confirms that the euro-zone economy was in freefall at the end of March, with GDP dropping by a record amount throughout the region. This... 30th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q1) Taiwan’s economy contracted by 1.5% q/q in the first quarter of the year, and things are likely to get much worse before they get better. Despite containing the virus at home, a slump in global growth... 30th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Dwindling hopes of a quick post-virus recovery The severe weakness in India’s labour market and growing risk aversion among banks suggest that the virus and the measures to contain it have already inflicted lasting damage on the economy. Even so... 30th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Easing lockdowns will boost growth The strict lockdowns have resulted in a massive drop in demand, but they have also been successful at ‘flattening the curve’ or reducing the number of new daily cases of Covid-19 in both countries... 30th April 2020 · 10 mins read
Europe Data Response French, Spanish & Austrian GDP (Q1) Lockdown measures to contain the coronavirus caused unprecedented quarterly contractions in GDP in France and Spain in Q1. And with the restrictions set to remained unchanged until mid-May and then be... 30th April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Officials turn to infrastructure amid slow recovery The early data for April suggest that the post-COVID-19 recovery remains slow and uneven. Policymakers are stepping up fiscal stimulus in response, which looks set to drive a sharp pick-up in... 30th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Consumer confidence sank to a record low in April. That lends further credence to the view that a consumption-led plunge in economic activity is underway this quarter. We are forecasting a 12% q/q... 30th April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Apr.) The latest survey data shows that renewed weakness in the manufacturing sector was offset by a pick-up in construction and services, leaving the overall pace of recovery broadly unchanged in April. 30th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Extension of state of emergency to weigh on spending The government will extend the state of emergency at least until the end of May. We continue to expect GDP to fall by 12% q/q in Q2. Meanwhile, the government has started a review of Japan’s outdated... 30th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Consumption to rebound as lockdown is ending Several Australian states have started to end their lockdowns and will probably relax restrictions on economic activity further over the next few months. A rapid easing would pose upside risks to our... 30th April 2020 · 8 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Mar.) While both industrial output and retail sales held up a little better than expected in March, they still fell sharply. And with efforts to contain the virus having been stepped up significantly in... 30th April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q1) Since the pandemic-related lockdowns only really began in earnest in the final two weeks of the quarter, the 4.8% annualised decline in GDP over the first quarter as-a-whole illustrates that activity... 29th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) The collapse in April’s Economic Sentiment Indicators to levels not recorded before in Central and Eastern Europe point to GDP falling by around 6.0% y/y at the start of Q2, more than twice as large... 29th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Apr.) and Euro-zone Bank Lending (Mar.) The largest-ever slump in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in April comes as no surprise but, along with the 3.9% q/q fall in Belgian GDP in Q1, it underlines the depth of the euro-zone’s recession... 29th April 2020 · 2 mins read
