Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan on prolonged hold Weak activity data suggest that GDP may have contracted by 1.0% q/q in the fourth quarter and we still expect the economy to shrink next year rather than expand as most anticipate. However, with the... 13th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) The Q4 Tankan was a mixed bag rather than the disaster that many analysts were anticipating. As such, it probably won’t convince the Bank of Japan to ease policy next week. 13th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The fall in Mexican manufacturing output in October was largely due to the GM strike, but even if this were excluded the latest figures show weakness across key industrial sectors. This strengthens... 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update What to expect in 2020 Domestic headwinds will continue to weigh on growth next year, even as the external environment starts to improve. We expect this to trigger additional policy easing, with the PBOC likely to cut rates... 12th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO, Saudi growth, Algeria’s election Aramco shares surged after the long-awaited IPO this week, and it looks like some of the proceeds from the sale may be spent by the Saudi sovereign wealth fund to offset the hit from the fiscal... 12th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s sharp fall in euro-zone industrial production adds to the evidence that the sector’s troubles are far from over. We expect the sector to remain in recession at the start of next year. 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Contraction continued into Q4 Activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy continued to contract in October. Given the escalation of power sector problems more recently, it’s likely that the economy has now entered recession. 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Oct.) The sharp fall in “core” machinery orders in October supports our view that there will be a sizeable drop-off in business investment this quarter. We expect a 1.0% q/q fall in non-residential... 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tax hike less damaging than previous ones The available data on retail sales, household spending as well as the Bank of Japan’s consumption activity index show that consumer spending fell broadly as much in October as in April 2014, when the... 11th December 2019 · 10 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Eskom pulling the plug on growth Severe power cuts in will weigh on the economy in Q4, and raise the serious risk of another technical recession. Even if the economy does manage to return to growth this quarter, recent weakness has... 10th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Oct.) The stagnation in GDP in October is unlikely to influence many people’s vote in Thursday’s election, but it could prompt some more MPC members to vote for lower interest rates in the coming months. 10th December 2019 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) Rising pork prices pushed consumer price inflation to its highest level in close to eight years last month. But the pick-up in food inflation will reverse soon and broader demand-side price pressures... 10th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2020 We think that GDP growth in both Australia and New Zealand will fall short of expectations, forcing both the RBNZ and the RBA to cut interest rates more sharply than most expect. The consensus is that... 10th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Nov.) November’s Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) points to a slight rebound in consumer spending last month. However, the deterioration in manufacturing and employment conditions underline that the economy... 9th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q3 Revised) While Japan’s economy expanded more sharply ahead of the sales tax hike than most had anticipated, output probably fell sharply in the fourth quarter. While the consensus expects the economy to keep... 9th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil output cuts likely to drag on Saudi recovery The OPEC+ oil quota cuts announced today are unlikely to have a significant economic impact on most Gulf economies, but they will on Saudi Arabia. The direct impact of the output cuts means GDP growth... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read