Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Output won’t return to normal anytime soon Economic activity in New Zealand has started to rebound after its severe lockdown has come to an end. But there are a number of reasons why output won’t return to normal anytime soon. 7th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q1) The larger-than-expected contraction in the Philippines economy in Q1 suggests that the lockdown there is having a severe impact on economic activity and that growth is likely to be even worse than we... 7th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The massive rebound in exports in March is hardly surprising given the impact of a cyclone in February but we think weakness in global demand will weigh on export growth in the coming months. 7th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update African downturn and recovery paths to diverge Low-profile data suggest that the economic damage caused by lockdowns in some of the poorer economies in Africa will be more moderate than in higher-income countries. But the economic pain could be... 6th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Apr.) The extraordinary plunge in the services PMI highlights that services is faring far worse than the manufacturing sector in the current crisis. Looking ahead, the services sector is likely to suffer... 6th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Mar./Q1) A large share of the surge in retail sales values in Q1 reflected soaring prices and sales volumes only rose modestly. With spending on many services plummeting, consumption probably fell in Q1. And... 6th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Focus Virus disruption will leave severe and lasting scars India’s economy is all but certain to contract this year for the first time since 1979. And the government’s reluctance to respond to the coronavirus crisis as aggressively as those elsewhere means... 6th May 2020 · 13 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP (Q1) & Switzerland CPI (Apr.) The comparatively small fall in Swedish GDP in Q1 appears to owe as much to a strong January and February as Sweden’s lighter-touch lockdown. Accordingly, today’s data underplay the scale of the... 5th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q1) GDP growth in Indonesia held up better than most in Q1, but we doubt this resilience will last. Indonesia was later than other countries to lockdown its economy, meaning more of the hit will have... 5th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The business activity indicator of South Africa’s manufacturing PMI crashed to just 5.1 in April, highlighting the severity of the country’s lockdown. With the lockdown now easing, conditions should... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy contracted by the most on record last quarter as tourism collapsed, trade flows slowed sharply and social distancing weighed on domestic spending. 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia reopening won’t prevent sharp downturn Malaysia reopened most of its economy today following nearly seven weeks of lockdown, but with consumer behaviour unlikely to return to normal quickly and global demand very weak, the economy is still... 4th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - What does lower net migration mean for Australia? The closure of the border will reduce Australia’s potential GDP growth by as much as 1% for as long as it lasts. What’s more, it seems likely that net migration will be lower than before the virus... 4th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The astounding plunge in India’s manufacturing PMI to a record low in April strongly indicates that the nationwide lockdown has caused activity to collapse. Looking ahead, with the shutdown now... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The manufacturing PMIs for Asia sank sharply in April and are unlikely to have bottomed out yet in many places. Any recovery in industry thereafter is set to be very slow going. 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Mar.) India’s core infrastructure industries index contracted sharply in March, suggesting that overall industrial output will have fallen by a similar magnitude. The lockdown only began towards the end of... 30th April 2020 · 2 mins read
