Europe Economics Focus Risk of inflation lower in the euro-zone than elsewhere If it is sustained for long enough, the policy stimulus being implemented in the euro-zone could eventually cause inflation to take off. However, we think it is more likely that policy is normalised... 17th September 2020 · 18 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan policy rate set for an extended hold With the economy holding up relatively well, the decision by Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) to leave interest rates on hold came as no surprise. Further rate cuts are unlikely, and we expect interest... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export recovery will be a long slog The rebound in EM exports continued in July, but further gains will be harder to come by from here. Indeed, the initial boost from re-opening economies is likely to fade and the slowing global... 17th September 2020 · 4 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ preparing to launch negative rates The RBNZ is reaching the limits of its asset purchase program. We therefore doubt the Bank will make any significant policy changes at its meeting on Wednesday 23 rd September. Even so, the economy... 17th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q2) New Zealand’s GDP fell by 12.2% q/q in Q2 but while the second lockdown should weigh on the recovery in Q3 we still expect growth to rebound by more than 10% in Q3. 17th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker suggests that last month EMs suffered the largest net outflow of capital since the height of the market turmoil in March. Net outflows look set to persist in the coming months, although... 16th September 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The 0.6% m/m rise in retail sales in August was a bit weaker than we had expected, but isn’t a huge concern given that sales are now nearly 2% above their pre-pandemic level. The expiry of the... 16th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inventories point to little inflationary pressure In contrast to the US where falling inventories may start to push up prices, euro-zone firms’ inventories suggest that near-term price pressures are weak. 16th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi consumer resilience unlikely to last Consumer spending in Saudi Arabia seems to have bounced back quickly in recent months, but the steep VAT hike and the suspension of the Cost of Living Allowance means that this is unlikely to be... 16th September 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trade data point to sluggish demand recovery The widening in India’s goods trade deficit in August won’t put the external position at risk, but the underlying data suggest that the recovery in external and domestic demand is stuttering. 16th September 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Aug.) Economic growth in China accelerated further in August as sentiment improved among consumers and private firms. Retail sales surpassed 2019 levels for the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak, while... 15th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Strong Czech recovery despite rise in cases The Czech Republic has seen a renewed surge in virus cases in recent weeks and now has one of the worst outbreaks in Europe. While this poses a growing downside risk to the outlook, it has not changed... 14th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (July) The further increase in industrial production in July confirmed that the sector is continuing to recover. But output is still some way below its pre-crisis level and the pace of the rebound has slowed... 14th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.) Turkish industrial production and retail sales posted a strong recovery in July as the continued easing of lockdown measures and rapid credit expansion boosted activity. The tightening of monetary... 14th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South African economy stumbles, oil price falls Q2 GDP figures released in South Africa this week weren’t quite as ugly as we had feared, which has prompted us to revise up our full year growth forecast (to -8.5% from -11.0%). Even so, the country... 11th September 2020 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The contraction in industrial output eased a little further in July but was still well below pre-virus levels. With India now on course to becoming the epicentre of the coronavirus, restrictions are... 11th September 2020 · 2 mins read
