Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s downturn worse than we feared The weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP figure, coupled with signs that Q2 is shaping up to be worse than we had initially thought, has prompted us to revise down our estimate for the fall in Colombian GDP... 19th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2020) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth to 1.6% y/y in Q1 almost certainly failed to capture the extent of virus containment measures as the government did not implement lockdown measures until late-March... 19th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q1) While Chile’s economy grew strongly in Q1, this was largely due to favourable base effects resulting from strikes in Q4, and hides a sharp deterioration in activity in March. We expect a steep... 18th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Emerging Asia to recover faster than elsewhere Most economies in Emerging Asia will experience falls in GDP of 10-20% in the first half of the year, which is similar to what we expect in most other parts of the world. However, with many in the... 18th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q1) Figures released today show the slump in Thailand’s economy was less severe than expected last quarter, but this will provide little comfort, Q2 data are set be much worse. 18th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q1 Preliminary) The fall in output in the first quarter suggests the spread of the virus had already dealt a significant blow to economic activity in March with much worse to come in Q2. A double-digit fall in GDP is... 18th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) The 11.2% m/m fall in industrial production in April was bigger than at any point in the index’s 100-year history, including the Great Depression, the end of World War 2 and the Global Financial... 15th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) The Q1 GDP data confirm that virus containment measures have caused much bigger declines in activity in some euro-zone countries than in others. Over the rest of the year, we think that there will be... 15th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Taking stock of the stimulus measures After weeks of inaction, the government has made a splash with its new support package by spreading the details across three separate announcements (and counting) this week. But as more details emerge... 15th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Green shoots after Golden Week holiday Economic activity remained severely damaged by coronavirus containment efforts in early May. In particular, the retail sector usually receives a substantial boost during Golden Week but the number of... 15th May 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Rebound in activity to underwhelm The government has now ended the state of emergency in prefectures accounting for around 60% of economic activity. As such, economic activity is set to rebound. However, we expect the recovery to... 15th May 2020 · 8 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Apr.) Industrial output and investment rose year-on-year in April for the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak. But retail sales and services activity continued to contract, held back by high unemployment... 15th May 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to watch at the NPC The 2020 growth target (or lack of one!) will be announced next Friday at the National People’s Congress (NPC) and will signal how confident the leadership is in a strong rebound and the degree to... 15th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Interpreting business surveys in a crisis Our best guess is that business surveys, such as the PMIs, understated falls in activity in April and we suspect that the next batch of surveys, released as early as next week, will do so again in May... 14th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar.) The collapse in Turkish industrial production and retail sales in March add to the evidence that, even though the government refrained from imposing draconian lockdown measures, the economy probably... 14th May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Will stimulus push up government financing costs? The new fiscal stimulus will substantially push up India’s already-high public debt ratio. Policymakers may have to resort to unusual steps to keep borrowing costs in check, including further... 14th May 2020 · 3 mins read
