Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Dec.) lthough the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) edged up again in December, the index still suggests that economic growth in the region was very weak at the end of last year. 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI edged lower in December, adding to the evidence that the economy remained weak in Q4 and raising the prospect of another technical recession. 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Growth to fall short of expectations The sales tax hike has not been as damaging as many had feared. But we remain more pessimistic about the outlook for global growth and domestic investment than most. That explains why we expect GDP to... 8th January 2020 · 22 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Dec.) Consumer confidence edged up in December and suggests that consumption continues to recover from the slump after October’s sales tax hike. 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Bushfires may reduce Q1 GDP by 0.1% The deadly bushfires that are ravaging Australia are first and foremost a human tragedy. But there are economic effects to consider, too. We suspect that the impact on consumption and working hours... 7th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What’s behind the weakness in the Gulf? The Gulf states are likely to have recorded their second weakest pace of aggregate growth since the global financial crisis in 2019 due to oil output cuts and poor performances from non-oil sectors... 7th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.) Whole economy PMIs for December suggested that activity in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector slowed at the end of last year, a sign that fresh fiscal austerity is already starting to take its toll... 6th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The further decline in the ISM manufacturing index in December, to its lowest level since June 2009, at face value suggests the US economy is teetering on the brink of recession. But it’s hard to put... 3rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian inflation, Polish MPC, IMF slates Turkey The drop in Russian inflation in December, combined with comments from the central bank governor, support our view that there will be at least one more interest rate cut in the current easing cycle... 3rd January 2020 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Oil price spike, strong growth to continue in Vietnam Oil prices have jumped following the killing of Qassem Soleimani, one of Iran’s most powerful generals, but they would need to rise much further before higher prices started to have a major impact on... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soaring house prices won’t prevent further easing Australia’s house prices rose the most in a decade last quarter and leading indicators suggest they will keep growing at an annual rate of more than 10%. However, there are no signs that households... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly GDP still likely to shrink this year The economy appears to have weathered October’s sales tax hike better than many had feared. But with industrial production set to record the steepest quarterly fall since the Great East Japan... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: initial GDP estimate provides little value The initial estimate of Q4 GDP suggests Singapore’s economy remains in the doldrums. However, the numbers are based on preliminary data from only the first two months of the quarter and are not... 2nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) December’s batch of manufacturing PMIs for Central Europe remain consistent with a further slowdown in industrial production growth over the coming months, although there are tentative signs that... 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) PMIs for Emerging Asia (ex. China) improved slightly in December, which is consistent with our view that while regional growth remains weak, it has at least bottomed out. 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The jump in India’s manufacturing PMI in December suggests that the manufacturing sector has recovered from its weakness last year and supports our view that the recent economic slowdown has run its... 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read