Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Private Capex Survey (Q1) We estimate that private investment was broadly flat in Q1, but firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure point to a sharp downturn in investment in the coming months. 28th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lockdowns, infection rates and the EM recovery Large parts of Emerging Asia have controlled the virus exceptionally well, which should allow activity to recover quicker than in most other EMs. In contrast, many countries in Latin America are still... 26th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: boost from pharma sector will not last A surge in pharmaceutical production has provided a significant boost to Singapore’s economy over the past couple of months, but this is likely to prove temporary and will not prevent a massive... 26th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q1) A very strong performance from the biomedical manufacturing sector meant that Singapore’s economy contracted much less in Q1 than previously thought. But with a stringent lockdown in place at home and... 26th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: deeper downturn, but fast recovery Q1 GDP data from Peru suggest that its lockdown is having a bigger impact on activity than measures elsewhere in Latin America. And with new infections in Peru surging in recent weeks, we are revising... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI ramps up virus response, more easing in store The RBI has further stepped up its response to the collapse in economic activity from the coronavirus and containment measures in another emergency announcement today. The central bank has also left... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong imports, Kansai gets back up and running The resilience of imports in both March and April has prompted us to significantly revise up our forecast for Q2 goods and services imports. However, the nature of the current downturn means that... 22nd May 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Recovery will be gradual and bumpy Despite the slump in retail sales in April, consumption is unlikely to fall as much as we had anticipated across the current quarter. However, daily data suggest that the pace of recovery is very... 22nd May 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update The NPC delivers on policy stimulus We had anticipated that the National People’s Congress (NPC) would lay out plans for a further ramp up in policy support and it did not disappoint. The annual budget points to fiscal stimulus this... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Transport services resume, Cyclone Amphan The government’s decision to allow some travel services to resume will provide a small boost to economic activity, but there is a substantial risk that this will lead to a further spread in virus... 22nd May 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China decoupling, property prices, trade outlook The main event this week is the opening of the National People’s Congress (NPC) later today. We’ll publish our analysis of the key NPC reports once they are released. The NPC aside, US-China tensions... 22nd May 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update How bad is the outlook for Indonesia? Indonesia is making much slower progress than others in the region in containing the spread of the coronavirus. This will hold back the economic recovery. We are cutting our GDP growth forecast for... 21st May 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (May) The small pick-up in the composite PMI in May suggests that activity is no longer collapsing as dramatically as it was in April, but the survey doesn’t point to a rebound in output yet. 21st May 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Lockdown hasn’t flattened the curve yet Despite a stringent lockdown that has lasted nearly two months, new recorded cases of COVID-19 in India remain on a sharp upward trajectory and hit a record high yesterday. The true number of cases is... 20th May 2020 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update What next for the Bank of Thailand? With the economy in a massive slump and prices falling sharply, today’s decision by the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to cut interest rates by a further 25bp to a new all-time low of 0.50% came as no... 20th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Mar.) Machinery orders held up surprisingly well in March but we already know from the national accounts that business investment was sputtering at the end of Q1 with much darker skies awaiting in Q2. 20th May 2020 · 2 mins read
