India Chart Pack Shadow banking woes deepen Measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus will increase strains among traditional banks, but the shadow banking sector – still reeling from a large-scale default 18 months ago – is likely to... 22nd April 2020 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Output to fall the most since Great Depression The restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling at a double-digit rate in Australia and New Zealand in Q2. While activity will bounce back over the coming... 20th April 2020 · 20 mins read
China Economics Update Hospitality, retail & construction were worst hit in Q1 The detailed breakdown of China’s Q1 GDP data that was published over the weekend shouldn’t be taken completely at face value. But it still provides a useful framework for gauging the relative... 20th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack New cases not exploding but economic hit still huge A second wave of virus cases driven by rising infections in Tokyo and Osaka has triggered a major shift in economic behaviour. And while new cases in the two lynchpins of the Japanese economy have... 17th April 2020 · 11 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q1), Activity & Spending (Mar.) GDP contracted in Q1 for the first time since China began publishing quarterly data in 1992, though we suspect that the slump in output was even deeper than officials claim. The monthly data suggest... 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Unemployment rate will rise sharply The official labour market statistics do not yet show a significant deterioration. But given the restrictions on activity and plunging confidence, we think the unemployment rate may jump to 12% before... 17th April 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly April is the cruelest month Activity data for March released this week confirm a precipitous drop in economic output. And with the nationwide lockdown now being extended, far worse is likely to follow in April. 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Government mulling additional support The government has now expanded the state of emergency from the initial seven prefectures to the entire country, allowing prefectural authorities to request citizens to stay at home. The experience... 17th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will a drop in remittances cause further pain? The scale of job losses and falls in incomes caused by coronavirus containment measures across the world – but particularly in the US and the Gulf – is likely to weigh heavily on remittance inflows... 16th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trade data highlight collapse in demand The collapse in both exports and imports in March highlights the extreme weakness of external and domestic demand. What’s more, the worst is yet to come as lockdowns to contain the spread of the... 16th April 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Economic loss from coronavirus on a par with GFC It has become clearer to us that the economic legacy of the coronavirus crisis will last a number of years. Our new forecast is that the economy will be about 5% smaller (£100bn) at the end of 2022... 14th April 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Lockdown extension will require huge fiscal support PM Modi’s decision to extend the nationwide lockdown that was due to end today comes as no major surprise given that coronavirus cases in India continue to surge. With many households having no... 14th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Eurogroup agrees on lowest common denominator The Eurogroup’s agreement on €540bn, or 4.5% of GDP, of support for responses to the coronavirus crisis falls a long way short of the large-scale joint fiscal boost which many euro-zone governments... 10th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish recovery to be slow and protracted Economic activity in Spain has collapsed as a result of the measures to contain the coronavirus. And even if the government begins to lift some of the restrictions next week, as it has suggested, the... 9th April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Industrial activity has collapsed Timely indicators on electricity demand, vehicle production and air quality strongly suggest that industrial activity has fallen off a cliff since the nationwide lockdown began on 25th March. These... 9th April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Expect the first negative GDP print in over 40 years China’s release next week of data for Q1 GDP will be perhaps the most remarkable of modern history. The statistics office often stands accused of smoothing fluctuations in GDP but we think it is... 9th April 2020 · 9 mins read
