UK Economics Update Length of lockdown and the implications for GDP With the reopening of the economy to be governed by the extent to which the coronavirus is brought under control and the burden being placed upon the NHS, there is still a lot of uncertainty about how... 29th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Steepest downturn since the 1980s Efforts to contain the coronavirus mean that the economies of the Middle East and North Africa will suffer their steepest downturn this year since the early 1980s. Draconian social distancing measures... 28th April 2020 · 16 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Long-lasting economic damage We estimate that aggregate EM GDP will shrink by 4% this year, by far the worst outturn since reliable records began in 1960. The recovery will be fitful, with output at an aggregate level likely to... 28th April 2020 · 26 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) The relatively strong batch of Russian activity data for March suggest that GDP growth probably picked up a touch to 2.5% y/y in Q1. However, this largely reflects the fact that Russia was much slower... 27th April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update The fallout from the Franklin Templeton wind down The RBI’s new special liquidity window should help ease redemption pressure on Indian mutual funds, which have come under strain since Franklin Templeton’s announcement on Thursday that it has been... 27th April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal delay, rupee drop, Franklin Templeton A second fiscal stimulus package appears close but, a month after the lockdown started, any further measures now will probably arrive too late to prevent an annual contraction in growth this year... 24th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Panic buying and job losses Activity data for March showed that the economy held up better in Q1 than we had initially anticipated. Even so, new weekly labour market data point to a sharp deterioration in April, consistent with... 24th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: what impact will easing the shutdown have? Vietnam has started to lift some of the shutdown measures that were introduced to slow the spread of the coronavirus, but this won’t prevent the export-dependent economy from slowing sharply this year... 24th April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The 5.1% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in March was the largest on record and suggests that household consumption declined by at least 4% q/q in Q1. However, as the corona virus lockdown was only... 24th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s push to reshore production won’t succeed The government is encouraging manufacturers to return production of components from their overseas subsidiaries to Japan. Given the large scale of production that is now located abroad, a major... 23rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Apr.) The slump in the composite PMI to a record-low in April points to GDP falling by at least 7% in Q2, but we think the survey is understating the severity of the downturn. 23rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q1, provisional) Economic activity in Korea fell by the most since 2008 last quarter and unfortunately there is much worse to come. With the external environment weighing heavily on export demand, a much deeper... 23rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan headed for recession despite containment success Taiwan’s success at containing the coronavirus outbreak at home will not prevent the economy from falling into a huge recession this year. We think the economy will shrink by 5% this year, which would... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) The collapse in the Polish activity data for March came on the back of two strong months and suggests that the economy probably avoided a contraction in Q1 and grew at around 2.0% y/y. But the slump... 22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update First thoughts on South Africa’s fiscal package The 10% of GDP emergency fiscal response announced by South Africa’s president last night will help to alleviate some of the strains in the economy caused by the lockdown. But with this coming one... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What if shutdowns don’t work in South Asia? The impracticality of social distancing for many will make it hard for countries in South Asia to contain the coronavirus. Failure to contain the disease would have dreadful humanitarian consequences... 22nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
