China Data Response PMIs (Dec.) The manufacturing PMIs ended 2019 higher than where they started the year but we doubt this means the worst is over for China’s economy. While it does appear that export growth is bottoming out... 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) The 0.1% m/m decline in October’s monthly GDP was partly due to disruption in the motor vehicle sector caused by the GM strike south of the border, but retail and wholesale GDP also contracted. 23rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor Positive signs in November Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth picked up last month. That’s a challenge to our expectations of a slowdown in growth in 2020. But the resilience of property construction still... 20th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EMs set for disappointing recovery in 2020 EM activity slowed at the start of Q4 and aggregate growth in 2019 as a whole is likely to be the weakest since 2015. Conditions should improve in 2020, but we think growth across many EMs will... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK to cut again, Sri Lanka on slow road to recovery Minutes from the Bank of Korea’s (BoK) November rate meeting reveal that while only one of the seven members of its Monetary Policy Board voted for a cut, other members also struck a dovish tone. We... 20th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ back in its comfort zone as 2020 approaches The most reliable measure of consumption showed a rather smaller drop in spending in October. The upshot is that the contraction in Q4 GDP probably won’t be as severe as we had anticipated. Meanwhile... 20th December 2019 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vegetable prices still rising, populism risk grows RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das reiterated this week that, despite the RBI keeping rates on hold this month, the easing cycle isn’t necessarily over. But the continued rise in vegetable prices over the... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Diverging fortunes Australia’s labour market is showing signs of stabilisation but GDP growth is set to fall short of the RBA’s expectations. As such, we still expect the RBA to cut interest rates at the upcoming... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Mixed end to a disappointing year The last round of economic data released this year pointed to a mixed performance in Latin America. Growth seems to have remained robust in Colombia in Q4 – and to have strengthened in Brazil – but... 19th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Unemployment rates will continue to rise in 2020 Annual GDP growth in Australia has probably bottomed out already but we expect growth to remain below potential in 2020. As such, jobs growth will probably not be strong enough to absorb the expansion... 19th December 2019 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Focus What to expect in 2020 and how we differ from consensus Growth in Emerging Asia has struggled over the past year. While most economies should stage a modest recovery over the coming quarters on the back of looser fiscal and monetary policy, with China... 19th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q3) The rebound in GDP growth in New Zealand in the third quarter is unlikely to be sustained as soft consumer and business confidence limit the pick-up in growth. 19th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa: A year to forget The final round of South African data released this year supported our view that the economy faltered in recent months. Output fell by 0.6% q/q saar in Q3, and the latest figures suggest that the... 18th December 2019 · 13 mins read
China Chart Pack US demanding implausibly large import ramp up China’s apparent reluctance to commit to the extra $200bn of US imports relative to 2017 levels that the US is requesting over the next two years as part of the Phase One deal is understandable... 18th December 2019 · 11 mins read
India Chart Pack Populist shift a risk for long-run outlook The citizen amendment bill – which aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from neighbouring Muslim-majority countries – has dominated the news over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t... 18th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Nov.) Import volumes probably fell more sharply than export volumes in Q4 so net trade should have provided a boost to GDP growth. That’s hardly a cause for optimism though as the weakness in imports... 18th December 2019 · 2 mins read