Asia Economics Update Thailand: onus on fiscal policy after rates left unchanged The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5% came as no surprise, and rates look set to remain unchanged for some time to come. The central bank hinted at further... 23rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ setting the stage for negative rates The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continued to set the stage for negative rates today and we think the OCR will be cut into negative territory early next year. 23rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Sep.) The September flash PMIs didn’t improve much further even as Japan’s second virus wave has abated. Nevertheless, the survey points to a continued pick-up in consumption, exports and industrial output. 23rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Forint weakness to prevent further rate cuts in Hungary The decision by Hungary’s central bank to leave its base rate on hold at 0.60% today highlights that the central bank is in a bind due to high inflation and concerns about the forint. Further interest... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s food inflation spike won’t trouble the BCB Rising food inflation in Brazil is likely to remain a cause for concern among politicians over the rest of the year, but with core inflation extremely weak, it’s not going to spook the central bank... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Long Run Focus Globalisation will stall in the wake of COVID-19 Global supply chains have functioned well this year despite the disruption of social distancing and lockdowns, and people in many places appear more appreciative of migrants. But the pandemic is... 22nd September 2020 · 25 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank bides its time, but leaves rate cut on the table The Riksbank’s decision to leave the repo rate on hold at zero this morning was never in doubt, but it left the option of a rate cut firmly on the table, linking it explicitly to moves in inflation... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Fortunes diverge in South Asia Success in bringing the COVID-19 outbreak under control in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and to a lesser extent Bangladesh has enabled activity in these places to rebound much faster than in India, where new... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Aug.) The batch of Polish activity data for August show that the pace of the recovery slowed as pent-up demand following the loosening of lockdown measures eased. The recovery will probably continue over... 21st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) The batch of Russian activity data for August show that the economic recovery continued throughout the middle of Q3 as mining output recovered strongly, but activity in the retail and manufacturing... 18th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish lira, Russia’s vaccine, virus cases in Hungary The pressure on the Turkish lira this week as the risk of EU sanctions continued to rise has prompted a further tightening of monetary conditions, but an outright hike to policy rates at next week’s... 18th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lockdown risks rise, low inflation here to stay The escalation of virus cases in parts of France and Spain, with officials worrying about the strain on hospitals, means that we would not be surprised to see strict regional lockdowns imposed in the... 18th September 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly COVID-19 downturn now in the rear-view mirror The economic data out of China this week beat expectations and point to a further rebound. The strength is still concentrated in industry and construction but that’s not a constraint on near-term... 18th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market looking up The unemployment rate fell in Australia in August despite the lockdown in Victoria. The phasing out of JobKeeper is threatening some jobs, particularly those people in Victoria still not working their... 18th September 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vehicle sales strength, rupee weakness The jump in passenger vehicle sales in August contrasts with other indicators showing that the post-lockdown economic recovery is stuttering. We suspect this is mostly a reflection of consumers making... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) While headline inflation fell in August, excluding the government’s domestic travel subsidy scheme it showed a renewed pick up. However, we still think inflation will fall much further into negative... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
