India Economics Weekly Early signs of lockdown impact in high frequency data A number of high-frequency indicators on electricity demand, vehicle production and traffic congestion all show that activity levels have plummeted since the nationwide lockdown began last week. The... 3rd April 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly SMEs, developers & exporters sitting out the recovery The first monthly data points for March add to broader evidence that activity began to bounce back last month. But the recovery already appears to be losing momentum and has been unevenly spread, with... 3rd April 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Feb.) The 0.5% rise in retail sales in February precedes the significant spread of the virus in Australia and we think consumption will fall sharply the coming months. 3rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update GDP to drop by 25% during lockdowns The imposition of strict social distancing controls across the continent means that economic activity in the euro-zone is likely to slump even further than we had assumed two weeks ago. For the... 2nd April 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economic Outlook Slowest growth in four decades Strict containment measures in response to the coronavirus outbreak in India will have severe economic repercussions. We think the economy will grow by just 1% in 2020, which would be the weakest pace... 2nd April 2020 · 13 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) India’s manufacturing PMI dropped to a four-month low in March and the reading has yet to capture the impact of the nationwide lockdown which began at the end of the month. April’s reading, and... 2nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The Caixin manufacturing PMI strengthened last month from February’s abysmal levels and suggests that the contraction in activity has already bottomed out. But weak foreign demand and labour market... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) The manufacturing PMIs for Asia suggest that industry has been hit hard by the coronavirus, and we suspect the readings will deteriorate much further in the next couple of months. 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) While the Q1 Tankan survey held up slightly better than we were expecting, it still showed a marked deterioration in business conditions. And with sentiment set to deteriorate further as lockdowns... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update How quickly will the world economy rebound? The world is heading for the sharpest and deepest global slowdown since WW2. Assuming that the virus is brought under control within a few months, the subsequent rise in world GDP should also be sharp... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Quarterly National Accounts (Q4) The confirmation that the economy stagnated in Q4 shows that it was very weak even before the spread of the coronavirus in the UK. We expect a 15% q/q fall in GDP in Q2 and things could easily be... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Mar.) The latest survey data add to broader evidence that activity has started to rebound but suggest that weak foreign demand and labour market strains remain headwinds. 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Feb.) Activity indicators show that the economy continued to expand in February. Unfortunately, domestic and external demand have since collapsed, so output is set to contract sharply this year. 31st March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Business surveys under-estimating the slump in GDP The business surveys for March point to declines in activity at least as deep as during the global financial crisis. None of them will be perfect guides to GDP though. If anything, the economy seems... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia: Wage subsidy won’t prevent surge in unemployment The government assumes that around a quarter of all employees will benefit from the huge wage subsidy unveiled today. Indeed, we now expect the unemployment rate to peak at 12% instead of our previous... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack First EM GDP contraction in post-war era The real-time economic and market disruption from the coronavirus means that much of the data released during the past month offers little insight into current developments in the emerging world... 27th March 2020 · 11 mins read
