Latin America Economics Update What next for Venezuela? Venezuela’s economy has suffered one of the largest contractions in GDP during peacetime which in part reflects woes in its oil sector, but also the undermining of private businesses and the... 5th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia PMIs, Korea Trade (Dec) & Singapore GDP (Q4) The December Manufacturing PMI readings for most Asian economies remain consistent with generally soft manufacturing activity. However, the PMIs have recently been a poor guide to the hard activity... 2nd January 2026 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Dec 25) While China’s growth picked up in November on the back of stronger export growth, the economy looks set to have expanded by less than 3.5% this year. Exports should continue growing next year, despite... 31st December 2025 · 0 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Dec. 2025) The decline in the RatingDog services PMI adds to evidence that momentum in the service sector remains weak, though this didn't prevent a slight improvement in the composite PMI. The partial recovery... 31st December 2025 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Industrial outperformance continues Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth picked up in November as export strength helped to boost industrial activity. But, while China’s exports have proved resilient in the face of US tariffs... 30th December 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Nov. 2025) At first glance, the November activity data appear to be a mixed bag. However, a look under the hood suggests that the economy is poised to rebound firmly from its Q3 contraction. 26th December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) We judge that the recent strength in AI-related investment marks the start of a multi-year capex boom. We expect GDP growth to be 2.5% in both 2026 and 2027. While labour demand remains soft , the... 23rd December 2025 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Oct. & Nov. 2025) The rise in industrial production in November looks less impressive with a peek at the breakdown, which shows manufacturing output flat last month, and considering the move simply reverses a fall in... 23rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q3 Initial) The 4.3% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP was well above the consensus estimate at 3.3%, but broadly in line with our own 4.5% estimate. A lot of other forecasters missed that this is essentially... 23rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Oct) The weakness of GDP over October and November raises the chance that GDP will contract in the fourth quarter. Even accounting for the effect of strikes in various service sectors, that weakness... 23rd December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q3 2025 Final) Although GDP growth was unrevised at 0.1% q/q in Q3, the shape of growth is a bit healthier and less reliant on the public sector than the first estimate suggested. That said, the economy is still... 22nd December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly 2026 – Key themes and possible surprises We think 2026 will be the year inflation finally falls to the 2.0% target prompting the Bank of England to cut interest rates further than most expect, from 3.75% now to 3.00%. This final Weekly of... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Oct. 2025) The sizeable fall in core retail sales in October chimes with weak consumer confidence, although large temporary drivers in either direction are partly to blame. While the solid advance estimate for... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB looking on the bright side The ECB was in a slightly festive mood this week as officials nudged up their forecasts for economic growth and inflation. We think this is only partly justified as we are sceptical about President... 19th December 2025 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal pullback weighing on growth Fiscal spending has slowed sharply since October despite ample fiscal space in the current budget, suggesting that local governments have been failing to make full use of the available funds earmarked... 19th December 2025 · 7 mins read
