Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina & the IMF, Banxico’s mixed signals Argentina’s government formally requested talks with the IMF over a new financing deal this week, but the conditions likely to be demanded by the Fund could prove to be a major sticking point... 28th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fragile EU-Turkey relations, MNB in a bind The Turkish central bank's tightening of monetary conditions has helped to stabilise the lira but the further ratcheting up of tensions with the EU and threat of measures beyond sanctions mean that... 28th August 2020 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Low oil prices are supporting the recovery China’s economy is benefiting from a favourable combination of strong demand at home but weak global demand for energy and low oil prices. As a result, the current account surplus has jumped to a five... 28th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) The further increase in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for August echoes the message from other surveys and high-frequency data that the recovery gained pace in Q3. But sentiment remains far... 28th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economy may have kept growing in Q3 The modest fall in private investment and the continued surge in retail sales set a high bar for economic activity in Q3, when tough restrictions will have resulted in a slump in consumption and... 28th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly QE is coming, tourist reopening pushed back The Bank of Korea this week hinted at further rate cuts and we expect it to also ramp up unconventional policy measures in the coming months. The Bank of Thailand is likely to follow suit – deflation... 28th August 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly OMOs ramped up, lifeline for borrowers The RBI this week announced new open market operations aimed at stabilising long-term bond yields. We think this is a sign of things to come as the authorities aim to keep government borrowing costs... 28th August 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Surge in retail sales overstating the wider rebound The recovery in total consumer spending is almost certainly lagging well behind the surge in retail sales. And although the early signs of a recovery have been positive, a coming wave of unemployment... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Recent stimulus has set back domestic rebalancing The consumption share of GDP had edged up in recent years, but that progress has been reversed by the COVID-19 stimulus response, which has focused on boosting investment. The consumption share should... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Lockdown fatigue is making restrictions less effective In Australia, the lockdown in Melbourne in July was of similar intensity to the initial lockdown in April. Even so, retail sales only fell by 2% m/m in Victoria which still left them around 2% above... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Economic Tendency Indicator (Aug.) The rise in Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) in August was smaller than in the previous two months and suggests that although the recovery there continued in Q3, it may already be slowing... 27th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q2) Data released this morning show that the Swiss economy weathered the crisis comparatively well in the first half of the year. While its fortunes are closely tied to those in the euro-zone, signs that... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Second wave impacts to differ in Korea and Japan Both Korea and Japan are experiencing second waves, but a stronger shift in consumer behaviour in Korea means the outbreak there is likely to have a larger impact on growth. As such, we’ve revised... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update How are the states faring? While some of the early epicentres of the coronavirus outbreak in India now appear to be getting infections under control, cases are rising quickly in several states that avoided an initial surge... 27th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Private Capex Survey (Q2) Both machinery and equipment investment as well as construction investment fell less than we had anticipated in Q2 which suggests that the contraction in GDP wasn’t as deep as we thought. 27th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Nordics top the class with their virus responses While Sweden’s economy got off relatively lightly in H1 thanks to the light-touch lockdown, Norway and Finland saw even smaller falls in activity at a lower human cost. Nonetheless, the success of the... 26th August 2020 · 4 mins read
