UK Economics Update Vote on a No Deal Brexit The indication by Parliament tonight that it wants to avoid a no deal Brexit will be welcomed by the financial markets as it reduces the chances of the weakest scenario for the economy, although not... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algeria’s protests and the impact on the rest of MENA Any economic fallout from the protests in Algeria will have a negligible impact on the rest of the MENA region. The greater risk stems from political contagion. Past experience suggests that... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the surge in EM FX bond sales? The rise in EM sovereign foreign currency bond sales this year has been concentrated in larger EMs with relatively strong balance sheets. We are more concerned about heavy foreign currency public debt... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The euro-zone market response to a no-deal Brexit Although UK MPs are unlikely to vote in favour of pursuing a no-deal Brexit tonight, that would not rule it out altogether. This Update considers the potential consequences of no deal for euro-zone... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update TLTRO-III to support bank funding, but not economy The ECB’s new “TLTRO-III” programme should help to prevent credit conditions from tightening next year. But any boost to lending growth is likely to be small. 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spring Statement Response: A sideshow surprise The Spring Statement was always going to be a sideshow to the Parliamentary votes on Brexit tonight and tomorrow, but the Chancellor managed to provide a small surprise by saying he had more money to... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will emerging markets outperform in the long-run? The broad tailwinds that lifted growth across the emerging world over the past two decades won’t be repeated and, as a result, GDP growth will be around two percentage points weaker over the next... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks fell sharply and we expect them to continue to fall in the coming weeks as refineries come out of maintenance. However, higher refinery activity should also start to stabilise gasoline... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Weaker data rule out additional rate hikes With interest rates on hold, the focus at next week’s FOMC meeting will be on officials’ updated economic projections, which are likely to show a lower expected path for GDP growth and the fed funds... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus One million vacant homes a risk to our forecasts If a large number of the over one million homes being kept vacant as the owner does not wish to sell were to be brought to market, house prices are likely to drop by 5% to 10%. But while slowing house... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) The stronger-than-expected expansion in Mexican industrial production in January, of 0.6% m/m, is an early sign that the huge drag the sector exerted on Q4 GDP won’t be repeated in Q1. We still hold... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Brexit mess still not a big threat to world economy The second defeat of Theresa May’s Brexit deal in the UK Parliament has increased the risks to the UK economy by prolonging uncertainty and leaving a no deal a possibility. But for the world as a... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Labour market slack growing beneath the surface Recent declines in hours worked suggest that, despite decent gains in employment, slack is building in the labour market. That, in turn, is likely to limit any acceleration in wage growth. 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) & Producer Prices (Feb.) The rebound in underlying capital goods orders in January stands out as a positive amid the recent flood of downbeat activity data, but it is still consistent with a gradual slowdown in business... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Feb.) The 0.4% monthly drop in the Teranet House Price Index equates to a 0.1% fall in seasonally-adjusted terms. That pushed the annual pace of house price inflation below 2% and we expect it to remain... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
