Commodities Weekly Prices can’t keep ignoring the data The prices of many commodities rose this week, despite soft economic data, in part owing to confirmation of Chinese policy stimulus at the National People’s Congress. As it happens, we think the scale... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCRA measures no silver bullet, team Amlo discord Measures announced by Argentina’s central bank last night appear to have supported the peso today, but the currency will remain vulnerable to large falls, particularly as October’s presidential... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Emissions drama returns to the PGM markets This week Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) announced a recall of almost 1 million vehicles. But even this should be insufficient to prevent palladium or rhodium prices from dropping markedly from... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Looser BoJ policy unlikely to prevent stronger yen this year 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Inflation target in question again The wisdom of the Bank of Japan sticking with an inflation target it can’t reach is being questioned again, including by Japan’s finance minister this week. But all alternatives would be worse. And... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone’s supply chain links: smaller than assumed Supply-chain links between Germany and the manufacturing sectors of other large euro-zone countries are smaller than people tend to think. As long as the slowdown in Germany is contained primarily to... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Muted inflation strengthens case for Fed patience The deluge of data this week provided some mixed signs on economic activity, but one clear theme from the producer and consumer price releases was that what little inflationary pressure there is in... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) The further decline in manufacturing output in February confirms that the global industrial slowdown is now weighing more heavily on US producers. With tighter fiscal and monetary policy constraining... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss GDP to slow, Norway bucking the Nordic trend We have cut our forecast for Swiss GDP growth this year to a below-consensus 1.0%. This leaves us broadly in line with the government’s recently-revised forecast for 2019, but we think its forecast... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Budget 2019 unlikely to drive pick-up in growth In the 2019 Budget, Finance Minister Bill Morneau is likely to announce some headline-grabbing policies to please voters ahead of October’s federal election. We doubt that they will amount to much in... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Little Brexit clarity, but at least the economy is coping well The Brexit merry-go-round continued this week, with the voting in Parliament providing little clarity on where the UK is headed and prolonging the political uncertainty weighing on the economy. Indeed... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export slump worsens The slump in EM exports deepened in the first few months of 2019, and with headwinds from low commodity prices and slower global growth likely to persist, we expect exports to remain extremely weak... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Not yet at a turning point We don’t think the increase in euro-zone industrial production in January marks a turning point for the economy, given that the business surveys for February were weak and global demand is still... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukrainian election, signs of stimulus in Russia Pro-IMF comments this week from the front-runner in Ukraine’s presidential election race (and comedian), Volodymyr Zelenskiy, reduce the risk that this month’s vote could trigger an adverse reaction... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jan.) The 1.4% monthly rise in manufacturing sales volumes at the start of the year will allay fears that Canadian GDP growth slowed even further in the first quarter. Growth is still set to be below... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The implications for the economy of a delay to Brexit The length of any delay to Brexit beyond 29th March could have a fairly large bearing on the performance of the economy and the path taken by official interest rates. A delay of 12 months or more... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
