UK Data Response Labour Market (Jan.) There was no sign in the labour market data of Brexit concerns at the start of the year as the data beat expectations in every regard. And solid wage growth and employment alongside weak productivity... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Wage growth likely to stop rising this year Euro-zone labour cost growth edged down in Q4 and, in contrast to the ECB, we don’t expect it to start rising again this year. This suggests that upward pressure on core inflation will remain muted. 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Feb.) Consumer prices in Saudi Arabia fell at an even faster pace in February than in January and we expect the Kingdom to remain mired in deflation for much of this year. 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slowdown in Czech economy likely to continue We think that weakness in Germany and softening domestic demand will result in Czech GDP growth slowing to about 2.5% this year. This puts us at the bottom of the range of forecasters. 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Wage growth weakening Major electronics firms and carmakers offered workers smaller base pay increases during this year’s spring wage negotiations than they did last year. (See Chart.) Only a small share of firms... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Labour market softens The jump in China’s unemployment rate from 4.9% in December to 5.3% last month, the highest in nearly two years, has added to the worries about the economy. The survey-based unemployment rate may not... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Drop in wealth to weigh on spending growth Consumers’ housing wealth declined last year for the first time in over three decades. The modest fall is unlikely to cause a drop in consumption, but it does suggest that spending growth will remain... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: current account concerns growing Colombia’s current account deficit is widening, making the recovery vulnerable to a deterioration in global risk appetite that we expect later this year. The country’s weak external position is likely... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What next for business investment? What happens to business investment next depends on Brexit. But in this Update, we estimate how much has been lost, how much will come back and when. The main message is that some boost is in the... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Feb.) February’s investment numbers do not alter the bigger picture that UK commercial property investment activity is trending downwards. And even once Brexit uncertainty is reduced, economic fundamentals... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q4) The pick-up in Chilean GDP growth from 2.6% y/y in Q3 to 3.6% y/y in Q4 was driven in large part by stronger domestic demand, but this has also caused the current account deficit to widen rapidly... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Next big leg up in sterling most likely after 29th March Although sterling could continue its ascent this week if PM May can get closer to squeezing her deal through Parliament, our best guess is that the next big leg up in the currency will occur after... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Smaller trade deficit is here to stay India’s monthly goods trade deficit narrowed to a 17-month low in February and, with oil prices set to remain low, we think the shortfall will remain small over the coming months. In turn, that should... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Feb.) The rebound in February’s exports was probably distorted by shifts in the timing of Chinese New Year. What’s more, the PMIs from Japan’s main trading partners suggest that exports will remain subdued... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What does a Brexit delay mean for the UK economy? The length of any delay to Brexit beyond 29th March could have a fairly large bearing on the performance of the economy and the path taken by official interest rates. A delay of 12 months or more... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
