Europe Economics Update Greek recovery likely to lose pace The Greek economy looks set to expand at a modest pace this year. But next year, it will probably slow as investment continues to contract and the slowdown in the rest of the euro-zone weighs on... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jan.) The much larger-than-expected fall in Brazilian industrial production in January, of 0.8% m/m, suggests that the economy is being buffeted by global headwinds. If anything, the risks to our below... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and the problem of deposit dollarisation The growing prevalence of foreign currency deposits in Turkey’s banking sector is symptomatic of the country’s long-standing inflation problem. Unless the central bank breaks with the past and brings... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What’s behind the global slowdown? In contrast to the crisis of 2008/09, the recent decline in world GDP growth appears to have been due to a combination of national factors rather than a single global shock. While the slowdown has... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Retail weakness not just reserved for secondary assets The recent poor performance of “average” retail property will persist over the next few years as investors shy away from risky cash flows. However, we also expect prime high streets to underperform... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jan.) The 1.4% increase in industrial production in January was a bit of a relief after the 0.9% fall in December, but it does not put an end to concerns about the euro-zone’s slowdown. The increase did not... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Unravelling the shifting dynamics of spreads There have been some dramatic moves in price spreads between different grades of crude oil in the last year. For the most part, spreads have reflected differences in the underlying physical demand and... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jan.) The decline in machinery orders in January is another signal that business investment will be weak in Q1, and possibly tip GDP into another contraction. 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Second Vote on PM’s Brexit Deal The defeat in Parliament of May’s Brexit deal tonight for a second time increases the downside risks to the economy by prolonging the uncertainty and leaving a no deal a possibility. At least January... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB likely to be forced into more QE in 2020 We now think that a combination of sluggish economic growth, low inflation, and monetary policy loosening in the US is likely to prompt the ECB to re-launch its net asset purchases next year. 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Barring “no deal”, Brexit to remain a sideshow for most markets 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Narrowing EM external deficits reduce currency risks Current account deficits have started to narrow in many major EMs, most notably Turkey and Argentina, reducing the risk of large currency sell-offs. That said, there are a few countries, such as... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A blockbuster decade for US equities seems set to end The real return from US equities in the coming decade could plausibly be less than a third of what it has been in the last ten years. Even so, that would probably still be more than the real return... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Growth will slow in 2019 The first figures from Q1 support our view that economic growth in Nigeria will be slower than most expect this year. Rather than accelerating, weakness in the oil sector, tight fiscal policy, and... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) With headline CPI inflation edging down to a two-and-a-half-year low of 1.5% in February, from 1.6%, and core inflation dropping to a four-month low of 2.1%, from 2.2%, the Fed would appear to be... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Sharp divergence in new and existing home sales A fall in existing home sales in January, to a three year low, suggests that the housing market slowdown that began in 2018 continued into 2019. Indeed, even after a decline in mortgage interest rates... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
