India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) & Industrial Production (Jan.) February’s rise in inflation probably won’t dissuade the RBI from cutting policy rates again next month. But the latest data underline the risks from the more dovish stance that the RBI has adopted... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algeria after Bouteflika Algeria’s President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s decision not to seek a fifth term in office is unlikely to spell the end of the political saga. Whoever eventually takes over will inherit an economy that... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Feb.) The slightly higher-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure for February, of 3.9% y/y, was driven by a spike in prices in a few food products which should prove temporary. Copom will probably stick... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Platinum ETF holdings to increase to record high In stark contrast to recent years, investors have been drawn to platinum so far in 2019. As a result, ETF holdings have risen by more than a sixth in just two months and are rapidly approaching the... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update High global stocks to weigh on wheat and corn prices Elevated levels of global end-stocks have prompted us to review our price forecasts. We have downgraded our end-2019 corn price forecast but left the price outlook for wheat and soybean unchanged for... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Jan.) The larger-than-expected monthly increase in GDP of 0.5% in January (consensus 0.2%) is a reassuring sign that, up until January at least, the UK economy was weathering the political crisis at home... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q4) Lending terms did not materially loosen in Q4, despite evidence of a pick-up in competitive pressures among lenders. Looking ahead, with uncertainty weighing in the near-term, and interest rates... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb.) The fall in Swedish inflation in February lends further support to our view that the Riksbank will keep interest rates on hold at least into 2021. In fact, with core price pressures subdued, and a... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus EZ equities likely to hold up better than US equities We forecast that the MSCI EMU Index will fall by another 13% this year as the US joins China and the euro-zone in an economic slowdown. Nonetheless, a resolution to the trade war could see equities in... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update 3 weeks to Brexit: Decision time? A series of votes this week might finally see Parliament make a decision on Brexit. Equally, Parliament could vote against all the options, leaving little time for a resolution to be reached before... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economic growth still lacklustre Economic activity in the euro-zone seems to have remained sluggish in the first quarter of this year: we think GDP growth will be only 0.2% for a third successive quarter. This is largely due to... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rally in Chinese equities built on shaky foundations The surge in China’s mainland equity markets since the start of the year looks excessive, even allowing for renewed optimism about stimulus in China and the possibility of a US-China trade deal. Since... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rate cuts still on the cards in Egypt The jump in Egyptian inflation in February has reduced the chances that the central bank will loosen policy at this month’s MPC meeting, but subdued core price pressures and strong capital inflows... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: US sanctions starting to bite Venezuela’s oil exports have dropped sharply following the imposition of US sanctions on PDVSA last month, and further falls are likely in the coming months. This will make it increasingly difficult... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Spring Statement 2019 Checklist This checklist helps clients keep track of the key official forecasts announced during the Chancellor’s Spring Statement speech at 12.30pm on Wednesday 13th March and to provide some instant context. 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
